Eisenkot to Receive Mandate Amid Lieberman's Parallel Maneuvers

President Isaac Herzog announced that Gadi Eisenkot will receive the mandate to form the next government on Sunday, having secured 67 recommendations compared to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 46. However, even before coalition negotiations begin, Eisenkot appears to be losing control of the process. While Eisenkot is pushing for a 48-member emergency government, Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman is pursuing a different path, holding independent talks with the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Lieberman's stated goal is a 61-member government with the ultra-Orthodox parties, or new elections. He rejects a minority government relying on Arab parties, even with external support. Jerusalem Mayor Moshe Lion, reportedly close to both Lieberman and the ultra-Orthodox, is said to be mediating, though he denies involvement while abroad. Eisenkot indirectly criticized Lieberman, warning that those who obstruct government formation for personal reasons would be remembered negatively.

Lieberman, however, is not backing down. He has indicated that a 48-member government is not an option and proposed an alternative with the 13 mandates of Shas and United Torah Judaism. To reach 61 seats, he is willing to compromise on several issues, including the highly contentious draft law, which was previously a red line for him.

Lieberman's strategy involves first engaging United Torah Judaism, which has remained neutral in the prime ministerial recommendations and is negotiating with both blocs. The next step is to bring Shas into the fold, though this is more complex. Shas recommended Netanyahu, and its chairman, Arie Deri, has stated the party is unlikely to leave the right-wing bloc at this stage. Lieberman's focus is on creating an ultra-Orthodox bloc to form an alternative government without relying on Arab parties.

The Democrats' Chairman Yair Golan and his party members issued a statement expressing a desire for partnership with the ultra-Orthodox public but not at any cost. Golan emphasized that such a partnership requires mutual responsibility, including the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox, increased employment integration, and respect for public lifestyle choices. Shortly after, Netanyahu responded by calling for national unity, urging the formation of a government including all "national and Zionist parties" to counter the perceived security risk of an Eisenkot government potentially dependent on Arab parties.

Eisenkot now faces two difficult options: insisting on his planned minority government with external support from Ra'am and possibly United Torah Judaism, directly opposing Lieberman, or adopting Lieberman's approach by bringing in the ultra-Orthodox bloc, which would necessitate significant concessions from him and his partners, particularly on the draft law. Lieberman has effectively issued an ultimatum: a government with the ultra-Orthodox or new elections, while Netanyahu attempts to draw potential partners back to his bloc with a unity government message.