US Congress Shift Threatens Israeli Aid and Iran Strategy

The Republican Party's loss of control over Congress following US midterm elections could significantly impact American support for Israel, according to an analysis by Maariv journalist Anna Barsky. This shift necessitates that Israel consider not only President Donald Trump's positions but also the growing influence of his political opponents, who have increasingly criticized US aid to the Jewish state. Potential consequences include questions surrounding military assistance, arms supplies, and the future strategy concerning Iran.

The new political balance in Washington creates diplomatic complexities for Israel, as the administration's decisions will now need to be viewed in light of the legislative branch's stance. Trump has indicated a desire to end the annual $3.8 billion in military aid to Israel by the end of 2026, despite the current agreement extending until September 2028. He cited Israel's economic capacity to purchase arms independently and claimed the initiative originated from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, though he provided no specific mechanism for early termination.

With Democrats now controlling congressional committees, oversight of US-Israeli cooperation is expected to intensify. New committee chairs can hold hearings, request documents, and scrutinize arms deals. Criticism of Israel is also expanding beyond the left wing of the Democratic Party, as evidenced by Senate votes. In November 2024, 18 Democratic senators supported blocking arms deals with Israel. By April 2026, this number grew significantly, with 40 out of 47 supporting initiatives against the sale of bulldozers and 36 against the sale of 1,000-pound bombs. Furthermore, 46 out of 47 Democratic senators in September backed a demand for information on civilian deaths in Judea and Samaria potentially involving settlers or Israeli security forces.

While a complete cessation of support for Israel is not widely advocated, there are increasing calls to link military aid to specific political conditions. Sanctions against organizations involved in Israeli settlement expansion are also being discussed, potentially including restrictions on builders and a ban on settlement product imports to the US. Even the discussion of such measures could influence financial institutions and arms manufacturers, with Israeli banks operating in the US facing particular risks due to potential dual compliance requirements.

The ongoing military campaign against Iran is also highlighted as a factor influencing US politics. Barsky suggests its economic consequences, particularly rising fuel prices, contributed to Republican losses. Trump himself acknowledged the war's impact on election results but expressed no regret and suggested further action might be necessary. While Democrats gaining Congress doesn't automatically mean an end to hostilities, Trump has options ranging from negotiating a deal to continuing military operations. The economic fallout and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz might push Washington towards compromise, potentially benefiting Trump if he can secure a deal on Iran's nuclear program, reduced energy prices, and restored shipping. However, US and Israeli interests might diverge if Israel insists on continued strikes while the US seeks to conclude the campaign.

These shifts in Washington coincide with Israel's ongoing efforts to form a new government. The article notes the parliamentary distribution: Gadi Eisenkot's bloc with 48 mandates, Ra'am and the United List with 19, and Netanyahu's bloc with 53 seats, though support from the United Torah Judaism party is uncertain. Disagreements exist among potential coalition partners regarding cooperation with Arab parties, US relations, and Iran policy. The demand from ultra-Orthodox parties for exemption from military service remains a hurdle. Support from Arab parties could strengthen the coalition's position, potentially allowing it to maintain a majority even if the ultra-Orthodox parties withdraw.

US election results are already influencing Israeli political discourse, with Yair Lapid suggesting the new circumstances, along with events concerning Shin Bet head David Zini and the 'Ra'am-Gate' affair, preclude a national unity government led by Netanyahu. However, other politicians within Netanyahu's bloc may not share this assessment. Regardless of who leads Israel, any future government will need to align its policies with Washington and consider the new congressional composition. The year 2028 is identified as another critical juncture, with US presidential elections and the expiration of the current military aid agreement, requiring Jerusalem to prepare for future cooperation formats.

Barsky emphasizes that the previous model of relying on personal ties between leaders is no longer sufficient for securing Israeli support. Future strategic cooperation will require engaging with both US parties and adapting to societal changes within America.