Israeli Writer Warns Change Bloc's Window to Oust Netanyahu Is Closing

Israeli writer Guy Rolnik has warned that the current month may represent the final opportunity for the "change bloc" to form a government and unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rolnik argued in an article for The Marker that leaders of the bloc, including Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot, and Yair Lapid, failed in their electoral goal of forming a government without relying on Arab parties. He stated their campaigns were based on attracting right-wing voters to form a parliamentary majority independently, but election results showed this strategy's failure, with the bloc's lists securing 48 seats compared to Netanyahu's bloc's 53.

Rolnik noted that Bennett and Lapid's declaration of victory on election night, despite the results, aimed to counter Netanyahu's attempts to cast doubt on the election outcome. However, he cautioned against treating this declaration as a genuine victory and building government negotiation strategies upon it. The writer highlighted a significant shift in the election results from the Arab community, with votes for Arab lists increasing from approximately 511,000 in 2022 to over 838,000 in 2026, translating to nine additional parliamentary seats. This coincided with a rise in voter turnout in Arab and Druze towns from 53.2% to about 77%, which Rolnik linked to escalating crime, racism, home demolitions, and the Israeli government's policies toward Arab communities.

The writer criticized Bennett, Eisenkot, and Lapid for adopting Netanyahu's operational assumptions, specifically rejecting partnership with Arab parties and any political settlement. He contended that attempting to attract right-wing voters by adopting hardline stances on the Arab community and the Palestinian issue did not strengthen the change bloc's relative power. Rolnik pointed out that Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu was the only Jewish party to increase its vote share, criticizing the opposition and Israeli media for classifying Lieberman within the liberal camp despite his political positions and history. Rolnik suggested Lieberman's talk of forming a government with Likud without Netanyahu reflects personal political interests.

Rolnik urged the change bloc's leaders to reconsider their strategy and act swiftly to form a government based on partnership with Arab parties, rather than continuing to pursue right-wing votes at the expense of this partnership. He proposed initial steps include the new Knesset being sworn in, electing a Knesset speaker, forming an organizing committee, and then mobilizing a parliamentary majority to repeal laws he described as undermining the judiciary and democracy, and to enact legislation strengthening democratic institutions.

He further called for forming a government with the participation of the United Arab List and external support from the Joint List, with potential later negotiations with Haredi parties in exchange for understandings on reducing the autonomy of Haredi community institutions. Rolnik warned that if Bennett, Eisenkot, and Lapid continue to adhere to Netanyahu's political rules, particularly rejecting partnership with Arab citizens, Netanyahu could retain power despite his bloc losing its parliamentary majority. He referenced the Hungarian experience as a model for power change and dismantling political control mechanisms, despite potential challenges for a new government.

Rolnik concluded that responsibility for Netanyahu remaining in power would not fall solely on him if the change bloc leaders fail to capitalize on the election results and form an alternative government. He stated that Bennett, Eisenkot, and Lapid would also share this responsibility, warning that missing the opportunity for change due to fear of partnership with Arab citizens would have political repercussions for the opposition leadership.