Ultra-Orthodox Party Considers Joining Israeli "Change Bloc" Government

United Torah Judaism is seriously considering joining a "change bloc" government if an agreement on the conscription law can be reached, a party source revealed Friday. This development follows an announcement by Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman that he is willing to compromise on the issue to form a government without Benjamin Netanyahu and avoid further elections.

A source within United Torah Judaism stated that the party is not surprised by these developments, having heard such discussions since the election. They understand the direction things are heading and are prepared to join a government led by the "change bloc" on the condition that a consensus on the conscription law is achieved. "If they give us a conscription law, we will go with them. Absolutely. This is the most important thing right now," the source explained, adding that resolving this issue would also unlock budget approvals.

Lieberman clarified on Friday that he opposes a minority government relying on the abstention of the Joint List and Ra'am but is open to compromise on other matters, including the conscription law. He emphasized that the national interest of Israel must supersede all other considerations, even if it is personally difficult. Members of Yisrael Beiteinu believe that compromising on the conscription law is necessary because only the "change bloc" can pass it publicly. They argue that the alternatives, relying on Arab parties, forming a government with Netanyahu, or holding new elections, are unacceptable to Lieberman, necessitating flexibility on conscription.

United Torah Judaism MK Yaakov Asher responded to Lieberman's statement with a pointed remark, expressing pleasure at the "flexibility of all political players" on the conscription issue. He lamented the potential for avoided "incitement and fratricidal hatred" had such flexibility been shown earlier. Asher reiterated that any political proposal would first be presented for "spiritual decision" by the "great leaders of our generation."

Within United Torah Judaism, there is an assessment that initiating negotiations with Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the "change bloc," is a realistic possibility, though complex. Lieberman's willingness to compromise does not guarantee an agreement with the Haredi parties, and the conscription of yeshiva students is expected to be central to any potential negotiations. Political assessments suggest that Haredi parties may struggle to vote for a new conscription law that includes significant sanctions or strict quotas, potentially requiring a softened approach to secure their support.

The "change bloc" currently has 48 mandates, insufficient for a 61-seat coalition. Adding United Torah Judaism's seven mandates would bring the total to 55. Including Shas, with its six mandates, would reach 61. United Torah Judaism is examining the possibility that its entry into a "change" government could pave the way for Shas to join later. This scenario might allow Shas chairman Arie Deri to argue that his party's entry was not the deciding factor in forming the government. However, it remains unclear how a 61-seat government could be formed without Shas if United Torah Judaism only contributes to a total of 55 mandates.

Some within the "change bloc" view securing agreement with both Haredi parties as a difficult, perhaps impossible, task. Others are encouraged that United Torah Judaism, despite pressure, did not recommend a candidate to the President. The "change bloc" has not yet received the mandate to form a government, and Eisenkot has pledged to do everything to achieve it. However, at least half of the bloc, led by Lieberman, has indicated that a contingency plan for a 48-seat government relying on the abstention of Arab parties is unacceptable. Naftali Bennett has not publicly stated his position but is not expected to support a government that relies in any way on Arab parties.