Four Scenarios for Israeli Government Formation Amidst Complex Negotiations

Israeli President Isaac Herzog is expected to announce on Sunday his decision on who will be tasked with forming the next government. Current indications suggest Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the "Yashar" party, may receive the mandate, having secured more recommendations from Knesset members than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Eisenkot received recommendations representing 67 Knesset members, compared to Netanyahu's 46. However, Herzog cautioned that these numbers do not guarantee a stable coalition due to mutual vetoes and deep-seated disagreements.

If tasked, Eisenkot will have an initial 28 days, extendable by 14, to forge a coalition. His path is fraught with political obstacles, particularly concerning the inclusion of Arab and Haredi parties and differing stances on the conscription law. Four main scenarios are emerging:

1. **Involving a Haredi party with external Arab support:** This involves forming a government with the Haredi "Yahadut HaTorah" party, supported externally by the United Arab List. This combination would bring together 48 seats from the "change bloc" parties, plus 7 from "Yahadut HaTorah" and 8 from the United Arab List, totaling 63 seats. A major hurdle is the conscription law, which Haredi parties oppose, while "change bloc" parties have pledged to enact a law limiting exemptions.

2. **A minority government of 48 seats:** This scenario entails forming a government with the core "change bloc" parties (Eisenkot, Bennett, Lieberman, and Golan), totaling 48 seats. This government would operate without a parliamentary majority, relying on understandings with other parties for support on key votes. This option faces resistance from partners like Bennett and Lieberman, who are hesitant to rely on a minority government.

3. **A national unity government with Netanyahu:** Despite the "change bloc's" stated opposition to Netanyahu remaining Prime Minister, a national unity government is still discussed. Deep disagreements persist over Netanyahu's political future, ministerial portfolios, and the possibility of a rotation in the premiership. Some Likud figures have called for a unity government but with specific conditions.

4. **Negotiation failure and returning the mandate to Netanyahu:** If Eisenkot fails to form a government within the allotted time due to unresolved disputes, he may return the mandate to President Herzog. Herzog could then potentially task another Knesset member, possibly Netanyahu, if he believes Netanyahu has a viable path to forming a coalition.

The article highlights that the key challenge for Eisenkot lies not just in the number of recommendations but in his ability to translate them into workable political agreements. Both Arab parties, the Joint List and the United Arab List, have recommended Eisenkot, but their role in a future government remains a point of contention. Haredi parties also hold significant influence, especially with Lieberman reportedly open to negotiations despite the conscription law dispute. President Herzog's decision on Sunday is the crucial first step in a complex negotiation process.