Lebanon's PM Warns Against 'Absurd Adventure' Amid War Fears

Lebanon is intensifying political and diplomatic efforts to avert a new war, driven by concerns over potential escalation between Israel and Iran, and Hezbollah's possible involvement. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam warned against dragging Lebanon into an "absurd adventure" that serves foreign interests, emphasizing that the state must exclusively control decisions on war and peace. He stressed that protecting the country requires preventing it from becoming a theater for regional conflicts again. Salam's remarks followed a meeting with President Joseph Aoun, as Israeli military operations continue in southern Lebanon. Lebanon is seeking assurances against expanded attacks and pressing for a cessation of hostilities and adherence to the Washington understandings.

Analysts believe these warnings reflect growing fears of repeating past conflict scenarios, particularly due to a lack of clear guarantees from Hezbollah regarding its stance on a new Israel-Iran war. These concerns are fueled by an incident last March when Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli positions in support of Iran, despite prior commitments not to engage, which led to renewed, large-scale Israeli operations in Lebanon. Researchers note the Lebanese government's attempt to establish a new political equation where the state monopolizes war and peace decisions, preventing any party from making military choices outside official institutions. However, this effort faces challenges from Hezbollah's persistent military and political influence and its capacity for independent decision-making.

Salam also condemned any Lebanese military activity targeting Arab nations' security, referencing Yemeni accusations of Hezbollah's interference in Yemen's internal affairs. President Aoun, in a call with Yemen's Rashad al-Alimi, also rejected any intervention in Yemen or activities threatening its security and stability.

Domestically, disagreements persist over a seized explosives shipment in Dahr al-Baidar, with military judicial proceedings against 13 individuals for criminal conspiracy, threatening state security, and illegal explosives transport. Observers see this case as a test of the government-Hezbollah relationship, as Hezbollah claims the prosecutions target those acting patriotically for Lebanon, while some political factions insist on referring the case to the Higher Judicial Council due to its security implications. These disputes highlight ongoing divisions over the concept of resistance and state authority, as the government seeks to strengthen official institutions and prevent armed activities outside their framework.

In a parallel development, Hezbollah's leadership denied Yemeni government accusations of its involvement, alongside Iran's Revolutionary Guard, in managing Houthi military operations, calling them baseless. Analysts suggest these accusations present an additional challenge to Lebanon's Arab relations, as the government aims to rebuild trust with Arab nations and avoid activities that could jeopardize the country's interests or foreign ties.

Researchers indicate that Lebanon's current actions aim to avoid a confrontation beyond the country's capacity, given the ongoing economic crisis, damage in southern areas, and the high cost of past wars. The success of these efforts depends on the state's ability to enforce its security decisions, secure international guarantees to limit Israeli operations, and prevent Hezbollah from engaging in new regional conflicts. Between government warnings, Hezbollah's continued military activity, and Israeli strikes, Beirut faces a complex equation: regaining sovereignty without internal conflict and avoiding war without final guarantees against its recurrence.