Lebanon Fears Hezbollah May Join War Amid Iran Tensions

Lebanon is experiencing growing concern over the possibility of a new round of conflict with Israel, according to a report in the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reportedly fears that Hezbollah may not uphold its commitment to remain neutral in a potential confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Israel. This apprehension stems from past experience, as Aoun received a similar pledge from Hezbollah before the previous conflict round in March, only for the organization to join the fighting after the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

President Aoun is also cautious about the recent tentative dialogue initiated between him and Hezbollah, recognizing that further escalation could severely damage southern Lebanon and the Shiite community. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Aoun in a phone call that Hezbollah's entry into the conflict would have "devastating consequences."

Meanwhile, negotiations between Lebanon and Israel remain stalled over the issue of monitoring demilitarized zones in the south. Lebanon rejects Israel's proposal to assign this task to NGOs, while Israel opposes Lebanon's suggestion of involving UN observers, who have been present in the country since 1949. A Lebanese official told the newspaper that the Lebanese army had conducted over 1,200 operations to remove weapons and ammunition in the village of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah alone, while Israel has not fulfilled its part of the agreement.

President Aoun has instructed the army to avoid direct contact with the IDF, stating, "Direct communication cannot be maintained at this time while the Israeli army occupies our land." Hezbollah, however, anticipates that U.S. President Donald Trump will resume negotiations with Iran after the upcoming midterm elections. Hezbollah MP Hassan Ezzedine told Al Mayadeen that if the U.S. wanted war, it would have started it before the elections, suggesting that Washington's interests do not align with those of Prime Minister Netanyahu, and that recent Israeli election results have widened the gap between the two countries. Ezzedine believes Trump will have no choice but to return to the negotiating table with Iran post-election.