Israeli Politics: Deri Faces Tough Choice Amid Coalition Talks

Arie Deri, the leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, is reportedly facing a difficult decision regarding his political allegiance, caught between loyalty to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the demands of the rabbinical leadership. Some rabbis, including Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, are prioritizing the future of yeshiva students and educational institutions over political considerations for Deri. These religious figures are also critical of Netanyahu's perceived failure to address key issues for the Haredi public during the outgoing government's term.

Meanwhile, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, has signaled a willingness to compromise on various issues, including the highly contentious draft law for yeshiva students, as a means to prevent further elections. However, Lieberman maintains three core principles: an end to Netanyahu's era, avoiding new elections, and forming a government not dependent on Arab parties. He has dismissed speculation about demanding a rotation in the prime minister's seat for his support of Gadi Eisenkot's potential government.

The draft law for yeshiva students remains a significant hurdle in potential negotiations. While Lieberman is open to compromise, the Haredi parties may struggle to support a new draft law with strict sanctions or binding targets. A softer approach, potentially including a draft target of around 1,500 Haredi men, similar to a proposal from a previous government, might be considered to gain their support.

Political analysts are considering scenarios where United Torah Judaism might join an Eisenkot-led government first, leaving Shas to decide whether to remain in opposition or join a coalition that secures its institutions' interests. The potential for parliamentary backing from Arab parties, who may wish to avoid new elections, could also influence the situation, potentially allowing an Eisenkot government to continue even if United Torah Judaism withdraws.