Israel Prepares for New Iran War Amidst Trump's Unpredictability

The Israeli military (IDF) is preparing for a potential resumption of hostilities against Iran, despite growing pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump to avoid further escalation. This comes in the wake of Republican losses in the midterm elections, according to an informed Israeli source speaking on Thursday, November 5. Israeli officials have expressed caution about predicting Trump's actions, with one source stating, "Trump is unpredictable, it's impossible to know how he will behave." Another senior source noted that pressure on Trump to refrain from active measures intensified on November 4, the day of the vote, but warned that "predicting his mood is a dangerous exercise."

Senior Israeli officials described a complex situation in Washington, suggesting that Republicans might link their election losses to the war, and by extension, to Prime Minister Netanyahu. They highlighted Trump's volatile state, describing him as "furious and disappointed" and changing his stance frequently. Efforts by Vice President J.D. Vance and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to prevent a new round of armed conflict in Iran were also mentioned, with Vance's recent statements potentially viewed in this context. However, sources warned that Trump might disregard these efforts, possibly to project strength regardless of the midterm results. He has a window of opportunity until the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, and potentially beyond, especially as Iran continues to provoke him.

The White House acknowledged on November 5 that Vance's social media post attributing Republican losses to the Iran war surprised many in Washington. While the White House was aware of the post, one source indicated it deviated from Trump's official stance. President Trump himself conceded that Vance's remarks were "largely true," acknowledging the war's short-term impact on fuel prices but maintaining it was a necessary long-term decision to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Intelligence assessments suggest that resuming strikes would not significantly alter Tehran's negotiating position or lead to regime collapse. Nevertheless, sources familiar with internal discussions caution that Trump could still act, potentially intensifying his stance against Iran. Some believe the probability of renewed action is high now that Trump has "nothing to lose politically" after the elections, with one source stating, "He plans to bomb Iran. Don't listen to what he says. He held back because of the midterm elections. We asked him to wait until after the elections."