Election Data Analyst Disputes Likud Claim on Vote Count Impact

The Likud party claimed that only 4,612 votes separated a Knesset seat from being transferred from the Arab party Ra'am to the right-wing bloc, a change that could have altered the political map. However, a data analyst, known online as "Little Mu'iz," challenged this assertion, presenting calculations suggesting a different outcome. According to the analyst's findings, the surplus vote agreement between Ra'am and the Joint List significantly impacts the seat allocation, and it would require the disqualification of 6,675 votes to shift a mandate to the right-wing bloc, and even then, the seat would go to Shas, not Likud.

The Likud's claim was made in response to statements by the Chairman of the Central Elections Committee, Judge Noam Solberg, regarding investigations into suspicions of foreign funding aimed at influencing the 26th Knesset elections. Solberg acknowledged the serious nature of the allegations being investigated by the Shin Bet but emphasized that current information does not undermine the overall election results. He stated that even if the suspicions are verified, they would not invalidate the election process or its outcomes.

Likud criticized Solberg's remarks, expressing surprise that he would deem the foreign funding allegations severe while simultaneously concluding they had no impact before the investigation's completion. The party reiterated its claim about the 4,612 votes, asserting it would have completely changed the election results and the political landscape. Likud called for a swift and thorough investigation, stating that "a dark cloud hangs over the election results in Israel" until its conclusion.

The controversy arises amid suspicions of electoral bribery within the Bedouin community in the Negev, involving allegations of fuel cards and benefits distributed to influence votes. A separate Shin Bet investigation is also underway concerning foreign funding intended to sway the election. The data analyst's counter-analysis, based on vote counts and the seat allocation system, highlighted that the Likud's calculation failed to account for the surplus vote agreement between Ra'am and the Joint List. This agreement means the two parties are considered together for surplus mandate distribution. The analyst calculated that disqualifying 4,000 Ra'am votes would only shift a seat between Ra'am and the Joint List, not affecting the bloc's totals. Only by disqualifying 6,675 votes would a mandate be removed from the Arab parties combined, but it would go to Shas. The analyst further estimated that over 108,000 Ra'am votes would need to be disqualified for a seat to transfer to Likud.

Meanwhile, Judge Solberg confirmed that the investigation into the allegations will continue with a joint team from the Shin Bet, police, and the State Prosecutor's Office. The official election results are still scheduled for publication on Wednesday and will be presented to the President as planned.