Rehovot Again Predicts National Election Results Most Accurately

The Israeli city of Rehovot has once again proven to be the most accurate predictor of national election results, a distinction it has held since at least 2006. Haifa secured second place, moving up from third, due to its Arab representation aligning with the increased Arab voter turnout. Petah Tikva, previously in second, dropped in the rankings. Lod surprisingly entered the top four, also benefiting from high Arab voter turnout that made its voting patterns closely resemble the national average.

In the previous election in 2022, Rehovot, Petah Tikva, and Haifa occupied the top three spots. This year, the main shift was Haifa (slightly left-leaning) and Petah Tikva (slightly right-leaning) swapping places. Rehovot's similarity to the overall Israeli vote in the last 20 years decreased from 87% in the previous election to 83% this time, largely due to a significant increase in Arab voting, which accounted for 14 out of 17 percentage points of the difference. Conversely, Rehovot showed a slight overrepresentation of mainstream parties, with "Yashar" receiving 4.4 percentage points more than the national average and the Likud 3.9 points more.

Haifa has a lower Arab population than the national average but higher than other cities on the list. Its lower religious and Haredi population contributes to a leftward tilt, with Shas receiving 3.2 percentage points less than the national average and "Yashar" receiving 6.3 percentage points more. Petah Tikva has no Arab voting, and the Likud holds a 4.9 percentage point advantage over the national average.

Lod joined the top ten for the first time, ranking fourth, due to its significant Arab minority and increased turnout within that community. This resulted in an 8 percentage point advantage for the Joint List over the national average, while "Yashar" received 10 points less. Karmiel also rose to fifth place for similar reasons, with its growing Arab minority and a more diverse Jewish vote. Hadera and Netanya, which were fourth and fifth in the previous election, dropped to tenth and seventh, respectively.

Dr. Alon Yekuter, a senior lecturer at Tel Aviv University, noted that even within diverse cities, the heterogeneity is often expressed through sharp internal divisions between neighborhoods rather than a complete mix. "Even in Rehovot, there is a more Haredi neighborhood, the Marmorek area with a lower socioeconomic status, and the Weizmann Institute, where many protested the judicial reform. There is also the Dutch Rehovot, a classic middle-class area," he explained. For instance, in the Science neighborhood near the Weizmann Institute, "Yashar" received 31%, "Bayit Yehudi" 21%, and the Likud 15%. In contrast, the Giv'ati neighborhood saw 38% for the Likud, 15.5% for "Yashar," and Otzma Yehudit with 12%. Danya neighborhood is led by Shas with 21%, while Gan Shlomo neighborhood leans left with 35.5% for "Yashar" and 28% for Democrats.