Eisenkot Explores Minority Government Option Amidst Coalition Challenges

Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yachad party, has ordered an examination into the possibility of forming a minority government that would rely on the abstention of the United Arab List and the Haredi party United Torah Judaism. This scenario, which excludes direct negotiations with the Joint List, assumes their non-opposition to the government's formation, despite Ahmed Tibi's statement that the list aims to topple the Netanyahu government. The calculations suggest Eisenkot's bloc would have 48 seats, compared to Netanyahu's 53, with Arab parties holding 19. If United Torah Judaism and the United Arab List abstain, except for MK Yoav Segalovich who would support it, Eisenkot's bloc would reach 49 votes against Netanyahu's 46, potentially enabling a minority government. However, this plan faces opposition from Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, who rejects any government dependent on Arab and Haredi parties, directly or indirectly. One proposed avenue involves reaching an understanding with United Torah Judaism for parliamentary support from outside the government until a law exempting Haredim from military service is passed, with the party potentially joining the coalition later. This is complicated by the Haredim's insistence on resolving the conscription issue, which conflicts with Eisenkot's campaign pledges on mandatory military service. Meanwhile, Mansour Abbas, head of the United Arab List, seeks his party's entry into the coalition, even if only Segalovich is represented in the government, requiring further understandings beyond mere abstention. An additional hurdle is the Joint List's stance; their assumed abstention does not guarantee non-opposition without political agreements, potentially requiring commitments on civil demands from the Arab community, forcing Eisenkot's bloc to negotiate despite their stated refusal. This proposal might also serve as leverage in potential negotiations with Netanyahu for a unity government, though it faces significant opposition within Eisenkot's bloc and no indication of agreement.

In parallel, the opposition bloc has not yet agreed on a candidate to replace the current Knesset Speaker, Amir Ohana, from Likud, with the new Knesset set to be sworn in soon. Eisenkot advocates for his bloc to hold the speakership, while Lieberman insists on his party's candidate, Oded Forer. Israeli President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to begin consultations with party representatives on Wednesday to receive recommendations for the mandate to form a government, continuing through Thursday and possibly Friday. Projections suggest Eisenkot could receive 67 recommendations, or 60 if Yisrael Beiteinu abstains, compared to 46 for Netanyahu, with United Torah Judaism potentially abstaining from recommending anyone. These numbers give Eisenkot an advantage in receiving the first mandate, but do not guarantee his ability to form a government, as recommendations differ from voting positions. Under Israeli law, Herzog must decide on the mandate by November 11, granting the appointee 28 days to form a government, extendable by 14 days. If unsuccessful, the President can assign another Knesset member for 28 days without extension, or initiate a process where 61 lawmakers can request a candidate within 21 days, who then has 14 days to form a government. Failure in these attempts leads to the Knesset's dissolution and new elections.