Israel and US Prepare for Potential Iran Strike Amid Diplomatic Efforts

Qatar is making a last-ditch effort to broker a deal between the United States and Iran to avert a potential military strike, as both American and Israeli militaries finalize preparations for possible operations against Tehran. However, Washington and Jerusalem have differing objectives and desired outcomes for such a conflict. Ynet military correspondent Ron Ben-Yishai reported on October 31 that Israelis may know within the next week whether to prepare for war or focus on domestic issues.

On October 30, Qatar initiated new talks in Tehran, inviting a U.S. delegation to Doha on October 31. This initiative, based on a proposed step-by-step concession plan, could be the final diplomatic push. The plan involves Iran gradually opening the Strait of Hormuz and limiting its nuclear program in exchange for phased sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. While Qatari, Saudi, and Lebanese media suggest this approach might appeal to Tehran, Iran has historically rejected similar proposals, insisting on maximalist demands presented in September 2026. China and Russia are proposed as guarantors for the new Qatari plan. A U.S. and Israeli decision to attack is unlikely if talks proceed in Doha, but Iran's willingness to engage remains uncertain.

U.S. President Donald Trump's contradictory statements, a tactic to confuse adversaries, are also unsettling allies like Israel and Gulf states. Iran employs a similar strategy, sending pragmatic representatives to negotiations while the IRGC leadership, under hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei, makes final decisions. Ben-Yishai emphasizes that assessing the near future requires focusing on the parties' actual goals and actions.

U.S. and Israeli forces are prepared for a swift, intense strike of several days targeting Iranian infrastructure, with CENTCOM ready within 96 hours of a presidential order. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper presented options to Trump on October 29, developed with the IDF. While the IDF's participation is highly probable, the White House's aims differ from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's publicly stated goal of regime change. Trump seeks to force Iran back to negotiations on its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz by weakening the regime and IRGC, potentially leading to internal instability if sanctions bite deeply. The U.S. strategy aims for a victory that allows troop withdrawal while Iran seeks renewed talks.

The U.S. military objectives include preventing Iran from attacking ships in the southern Strait of Hormuz, degrading its ballistic missile and drone capabilities, and inflicting significant damage on nuclear facilities to prevent uranium enrichment for over five years. Targets may include facilities in Isfahan, Fordow, and near Natanz, as well as recently identified secret sites. U.S. and Israeli forces are coordinating to strike regime and military infrastructure without causing widespread civilian hardship, aiming to avoid unifying the Iranian population against them. Oil and gas production facilities are likely to be spared to allow for post-regime-change recovery and market re-entry, though refineries and transport could be targeted.

Trump's administration has softened demands regarding uranium enrichment, but insists on comprehensive IAEA inspections. While a joint U.S.-Israeli strike is unlikely to topple the regime, it could achieve U.S. objectives for Trump and significant damage to Iran's nuclear and missile programs for Israel. Iran, under Mojtaba Khamenei's directive to accelerate nuclear technology development, may be abandoning its previous stance against nuclear weapons, a move that deeply concerns Israel. Gulf states are lobbying against a strike, but the U.S. appears set on a short, powerful operation, deploying the USS Roosevelt carrier strike group to the Arabian Sea to support potential strikes alongside Israeli air forces. Iran, conversely, plans to prolong any conflict and inflict maximum damage on U.S. interests and allies to deter future attacks.