Israel Assesses Iran is Stalling, US Weighs Post-Election Strike

Israeli defense officials maintain ambiguity regarding preparations for potential escalation with Iran, while the White House is seen as giving Tehran another chance to return to negotiations, according to Israeli security assessments. Defense officials believe Iran, facing a worsening economic crisis, will not agree to a deal that fully halts its nuclear program or its ballistic missile production, which now threatens Europe. The prevailing assessment is that Iran is attempting to buy time, reportedly prolonging negotiations ahead of the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, Iranian security forces have suppressed initial signs of street resistance and prevented the formation of new protest movements.

Despite US Central Command's preparations for a potential strike on Iran, the White House is not expected to order an operation before the US midterm elections unless an imminent attack is detected. Reports indicate that the US and Israel have developed plans for new strikes against Iran after the elections conclude. Over 3,000 US soldiers are currently in Israel, with no sharp increase in US military aircraft deployments to the country observed last week. This contrasts with an unprecedented deployment of US military refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion and Ramon airports, alongside a significant presence at Israeli Air Force bases.

In light of these developments, the Israeli defense establishment anticipates the White House will pressure Israel again immediately after the US midterms to establish a Palestinian city free of "terrorism" on the ruins of Rafah, funded by the UAE. A security source confirmed that the principle of creating a "bubble" within Palestinian territories under high Israeli operational control has been approved. Israeli forces are still operating in southern Gaza, searching for unexploded ordnance, explosive devices, and infrastructure above and below ground. The initial phase of this plan aims to accommodate tens of thousands of Palestinians.

Senior defense officials oppose any progress on Gaza's reconstruction until Hamas is disarmed and the sector's militarization ends, including transferring governing authority from Hamas to a third party. US officials and "Peace Council" representatives are preparing to identify locations for Hamas weapon handovers, a plan supported by the US. However, senior Southern Command officials told Walla that Hamas has no intention of disarming and has reneged on proposals to hand over its weapons for storage within Gaza.

Consequently, Southern Command officials believe that regardless of the future government, the IDF is preparing for a ground maneuver to control Gaza City and dismantle its hostile infrastructure. Additionally, IDF forces in Hebron are preparing to demolish the homes of militants responsible for a recent attack in the city that killed two soldiers. This attack prompted extensive IDF operations in the area, with home demolitions expected on Saturday.