Shas Leader Deri Rules Out Government Without Likud

Shas party leader Aryeh Deri has indicated he will not join a "change bloc" government unless the Likud party is included, according to religious sources. Deri reportedly stated in closed discussions that he is unwilling to repeat the "Oslo Accords" experience of sitting with the left and bearing the public's criticism, asserting that Shas would only participate in a unity government with Likud if a right-wing government is not formed. This stance significantly complicates efforts by the "change bloc," led by Gadi Eisenkot, to form a coalition.

The "change bloc" parties, including Yesh Atid, Telem, and Democratic Union, hold a combined 41 seats. Adding United Torah Judaism (UTJ) with its seven seats brings the potential coalition to 48 seats, still far short of the 61 needed for a majority. Even including both Haredi parties would only yield 54 seats. While a coalition of the "change bloc" and Yisrael Beiteinu could theoretically reach 61 seats with the two Haredi parties, Avigdor Lieberman's opposition to partnering with Haredi parties and Deri's conditions make this numerically possible but politically unlikely.

Another potential scenario involves a minority government relying on external support from Arab parties. For instance, the "change bloc" parties plus UTJ and Ra'am could reach 56 seats, potentially increasing to 67 with support from the Joint List. However, this would require substantial political agreements between parties with divergent views. A minority government could technically be formed with fewer than 61 seats if enough opposition members abstain or are absent during a confidence vote.

A major hurdle to any coalition agreement remains the contentious issue of the conscription law for Haredi men. While Haredi sources express cautious optimism about reaching compromises with the "change bloc" leaders on this issue, they emphasize that it hinges on the bloc's willingness to concede. They suggested that if removing Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich from power is the primary goal, a compromise on conscription might be achievable. Otherwise, they warned, no government would be formed without significant concessions.