Ben Shapiro Says All Election Polls Were Wrong Except Channel 14

American conservative commentator Ben Shapiro analyzed the results of Israel's 26th Knesset elections, stating that nearly all polls were completely inaccurate, with the exception of Channel 14, which he described as Israel's "Fox News." Shapiro noted that most Israeli channels lean left, while Channel 14 leans right and accurately reflected the political reality.

Shapiro explained that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political survival is due to the fact that 65% of Israeli Jews identify as right-wing, with an additional 10% identifying as centrist, leaving only 22% identifying as left-wing. He asserted that the opposition's strongest efforts against Netanyahu ultimately failed. Shapiro pointed to data from the prediction market Kalshi, showing a dramatic shift where Gadi Eisenkot's chances for prime minister plummeted from 45-50% to 14%, while Netanyahu's stood at 25% and the possibility of no government formation rose to 56%.

He further elaborated on the parliamentary system requiring 61 mandates for government formation. Shapiro projected that Netanyahu's bloc would secure between 53 to 57 seats, while the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot would reach approximately 47 to 49 seats, resulting in a stalemate. He also mentioned that Arab parties, including the Joint List and Ra'am, would gain around 17 seats, with MK Osama Saadi dedicating their success to Palestinians.

Shapiro concluded that the relatively low turnout among the ultra-Orthodox and the failure of Ofir Winter's party to pass the electoral threshold resulted in lost votes for the right. He outlined two scenarios for government formation, both leaving Netanyahu in power: either a repeat election, which he believes would strengthen Netanyahu, or a unity government where some opposition members, possibly Eisenkot, join Netanyahu, potentially excluding Itamar Ben-Gvir, to form a coalition of 65 to 70 seats.