Netanyahu Bloc Leads as Shas May Lose Seat, Minority Government Eyed
Translated & summarized from Arutz Sheva by baba
Following the counting of 91.7% of votes in Israel's elections, Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc leads with 53 seats. Political commentator Amit Segal predicts Shas may lose a seat to Likud, potentially falling to six seats. Segal also discussed the possibility of a minority government formed by the opposition bloc and Ra'am, which would require the abstention of the Joint List.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Netanyahu's bloc leads with 53 seats after 91.7% of votes are counted.
- Shas may lose a seat to Likud, potentially dropping to its lowest result since 1992.
- A minority government is a possible, though tight, scenario, requiring Joint List abstention.
- Surplus vote agreements may slightly favor the right-wing bloc.
- The impact of double envelope votes is expected to be limited.
With 91.7% of votes counted in Israel's 26th Knesset elections, the bloc supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds 53 seats, the opposition bloc has 48, and Arab parties collectively have 19. Political commentator Amit Segal predicts that the Shas party is likely to lose a seat to the Likud, potentially reducing Shas to its lowest result since 1992. This shift would increase the Likud's seat count from 26 to 27, but would not alter the overall seat total for Netanyahu's bloc.
Segal also commented on the impact of surplus vote agreements and the Bader-Ofer method for seat allocation, suggesting that the right-wing bloc has a slight advantage in this regard in the current election. He noted that if a unity government were formed, Naftali Bennett's party and Yair Lapid's party would have one more seat than the Joint List, positioning Bennett as the opposition leader receiving security briefings.
Despite potential shifts in seat distribution, Segal anticipates a limited impact from double envelopes, which contain votes from soldiers and other special categories. He explained that the weight of these votes has diminished as fewer people declare limitations to vote in specific locations.
Segal's central political assessment points to the possibility of forming a government even without a clear majority for either bloc. He suggests that the "change bloc" and the Ra'am party might collectively hold more seats than Netanyahu's bloc. However, establishing a minority government would still require the abstention of the Joint List, a scenario he described as "possible (and quite tight) for such a temporary government."
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