Lessons from Israeli Elections: Respect Voters, Pollsters Need Humility
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Commentator Yoram Dori analyzes recent Israeli election results, criticizing campaigns that demean voters and highlighting the consistent failure of opinion polls. He argues that disrespectful campaign tactics can backfire, potentially strengthening opponents like Benjamin Netanyahu. Dori calls for greater humility from pollsters and emphasizes that democratic change requires persuasion and respect, not arrogance or exclusion.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Campaigns that demean voters can backfire, potentially strengthening opponents, according to commentator Yoram Dori.
- Opinion polls consistently fail to predict Israeli election outcomes accurately, requiring more professional humility.
- Disrespectful campaign tactics against voters can alienate them or motivate them to defend their choices.
- The "change bloc's" campaign against Benny Gantz may have inadvertently boosted Benjamin Netanyahu's support.
- Democratic change requires persuasion and respect, not humiliation or arrogance, Dori concludes.
Following recent Israeli elections, commentator Yoram Dori offers several observations on campaign strategies and polling inaccuracies. He argues that victory is not achieved through contempt for opposing voters, citing historical examples like Yisrael Beiteinu's campaign against Shas, which backfired. Dori criticizes campaigns that demean voters, suggesting it can alienate them further or, conversely, galvanize them to defend their choices.
He also points to the campaign against Benny Gantz by elements within the "change bloc," which he believes inadvertently pushed some of his moderate right-wing supporters towards the Likud, strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu. Dori contends that attacking a politician's supporters, rather than their policies, is a strategic error that can lead to backlash.
The article highlights the persistent unreliability of opinion polls, which consistently fail to predict election outcomes accurately. Dori criticizes the tendency to present poll results as definitive, especially when they fail to account for non-respondents or last-minute voter shifts. He calls for greater professional humility from pollsters.
Regarding the Arab representation in the Knesset, Dori notes that campaigns employing exclusionary or racist messages, intended to deter Arab voters, may have instead motivated them to turn out, thus strengthening their parliamentary presence. He also analyzes the performance of the joint Labor-Meretz list, suggesting it prevented vote loss but did not expand support to new demographics, emphasizing that true political change requires persuading undecided voters, not just uniting existing supporters.
In conclusion, Dori stresses that while disappointment with election results is understandable in a democracy, change should be pursued through persuasion, respect, and listening, not through humiliation, exclusion, or arrogance. He implies that the public has spoken, and this is the essence of democracy.
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