Party on Verge of Knesset Threshold May Reshape Israeli Political Map
Translated & summarized from Ice by baba
The "Reservists and Economists" party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, faces a slim chance of entering the Knesset as final vote counts are pending. The party needs to surpass the 3.25% electoral threshold, currently falling short with 3% of votes. The outcome depends on the counting of special "double envelope" ballots, which could favor the party. If they cross the threshold, it may impact seat distribution, potentially affecting blocs led by Gush Eizenkot and Netanyahu.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- The "Reservists and Economists" party may enter Knesset pending special ballot counts.
- The party needs to exceed 3.25% threshold, currently holding 3% of votes.
- Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha lead the party.
- Special ballots include votes from soldiers and Israelis abroad.
- Entry could shift Knesset seat distribution among existing parties.
A narrow possibility remains that the "Reservists and Economists" party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Prof. Yaron Zelekha, could still enter the 26th Knesset, despite falling short of the electoral threshold in initial vote counts. The final outcome hinges on the counting of double envelopes, which include votes from soldiers, security forces, hospitalized individuals, and Israelis abroad. These special ballots could potentially boost the party's support beyond the 3% it has garnered so far, which is below the 3.25% threshold required to enter parliament.
The party currently has approximately 128,000 votes, needing around 185,000 to cross the threshold. While the chance of achieving this is considered slim, the double envelopes, numbering in the hundreds of thousands, could alter the final seat distribution. Hendel had previously appealed to reservists during the election campaign, and a poll in August indicated over 5% support among them when he ran in partnership with Hili Tropper.
Estimates suggest that if the party secures about 10% of the remaining votes to be counted, it might surpass the threshold. Should the "Reservists and Economists" party enter the Knesset, it could impact the distribution of seats among parties that have already cleared the threshold. Calculations based on regular ballot counts suggest that parties like Shas, Yachad, the Joint List, and Yisrael Beiteinu might lose seats. This scenario could reduce the "Gush Eizenkot" bloc to 46 mandates and Netanyahu's bloc to 52, with Arab parties holding 18.
The party's potential alignment also carries significant weight. Hendel expressed a desire for a Zionist government not reliant on Haredi or Arab parties and opposed Benjamin Netanyahu's continued premiership. He stated he would support the bloc with the most votes among Zionist parties. Conversely, aligning with Netanyahu could bring him closer to a 61-seat majority, needing only 5 additional mandates.
Despite the low probability, the ongoing count of double envelopes leaves room for a surprising outcome that could further complicate the election results.
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