Final Knesset Election Results Hinge on Remaining Votes
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
Vote counting for the 26th Knesset elections continues, with final seat allocations dependent on over 500,000 "double envelope" ballots. These votes, cast by individuals like soldiers and evacuees, are expected to be processed by Friday, October 30, and could shift one to two mandates. The Central Election Committee anticipates a record number of these ballots due to the war, potentially impacting ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Over 500,000 "double envelope" votes remain to be counted in the 26th Knesset elections.
- The final distribution of Knesset seats is expected to be determined by Friday, October 30.
- These ballots, used by soldiers and evacuees, could significantly alter seat allocations.
- A record 600,000-650,000 double envelope ballots are anticipated due to the war.
- Historically, these votes have favored Zionist parties over ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties.
- In 2022, double envelope votes shifted at least one mandate from the ultra-Orthodox to Yisrael Beiteinu.
The final distribution of Knesset seats for the 26th Knesset is still undetermined as vote counting continues on Wednesday, October 28. The results are expected to be significantly influenced by the processing of "double envelopes" (maatafot kfulot), which contain votes from individuals casting ballots away from their registered polling stations. Elad Nave, head of the Central Election Committee's coordination center, stated that over 500,000 such ballots remain to be counted. He estimated the count could conclude by Thursday evening, October 29, or extend into Friday, October 30.
These double envelopes are used by voters unable to reach their designated polling places, including soldiers, reservists, evacuees, diplomats, police officers, and prison guards. Their votes undergo verification to prevent duplicate voting before being tallied by a special Knesset committee. Experience from the 2022 elections suggests these votes, typically representing 3-5% of the total, can alter the allocation of at least one to two mandates.
Due to the ongoing war, the Central Election Committee anticipates a record number of double envelope ballots, potentially between 600,000 and 650,000, a substantial increase from the over 460,000 counted in 2022. This surge is attributed to the large numbers of reservists and evacuees voting away from home. These ballots account for approximately 15 mandates and historically tend to favor Zionist parties over ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties, as many IDF soldiers utilize them. Parties like Yahadut HaTorah, Shas, Ra'am, and the United Arab List may see their seat counts affected.
In the 2022 elections, the counting of these ballots resulted in the ultra-Orthodox losing one mandate and the Yisrael Beiteinu party gaining a seat. In March 2021, after approximately 428,000 double envelopes were counted, Ra'am lost a mandate while Meretz gained one, without altering the overall balance between political blocs. Mandates are allocated based on the total votes for lists that pass the electoral threshold, considering residual vote agreements. In 2022, each mandate required 36,227 votes, and double envelopes contributed around 12-13 mandates in total, with Likud receiving about three, Yesh Atid two, and Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit each receiving nearly two.
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