Traditional Voters Drive High Turnout, Bolstering Netanyahu's Bloc
Translated & summarized from Calcalist by baba
Traditional voters, core Likud supporters, significantly boosted turnout, helping Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc maintain a lead over the "change bloc" in the recent Israeli elections. Despite the opposition gaining seats, two smaller parties are seen as having inadvertently secured Netanyahu's position. The high turnout among Arab voters, while substantial, is unlikely to change the overall results, and the Shas party experienced a significant decline in support.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Traditional voters' high turnout was the key surprise, bolstering Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc.
- Two smaller parties, "Am Israel" and "Economic Reservists," may have inadvertently secured Netanyahu's leadership.
- Netanyahu's bloc is projected to win 53-54 seats, while the opposition bloc gained seats to reach 66-67.
- Arab voter turnout exceeded 77%, but is unlikely to alter the election's overall outcome.
- The Shas party suffered a significant electoral failure, dropping to an estimated 6-7 seats.
The surprising key to the recent Israeli election results was not the turnout among Arab or Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) sectors, but rather the high participation of "traditional" voters, identified as the core of the Likud party's support. Initially, a high overall voter turnout seemed to favor the "change bloc" opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, the turnout in Netanyahu's bloc, excluding the Haredim, increased by a similar margin, allowing his bloc to maintain its lead.
Two parties, Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehlikha's "HaMeyulakhim HaKalkaliyim" (Economic Reservists), together accounted for approximately five Knesset seats and are seen as having hindered the "change bloc" by preventing vote transfers. These parties, which presented themselves as alternatives to Netanyahu, may have inadvertently secured his continued leadership.
Despite a relative decline for Netanyahu's bloc compared to previous elections, with projections of 53-54 seats versus 64 in the prior election and even fewer than the 55 seats in September 2019, the opposition bloc saw its numbers increase from 56 to 66-67 seats. This shift was expected to be significant but was mitigated by the "change bloc's" focus on forming a government of 61 Jewish members, with implications of potentially relying on Arab parties if they achieved a large victory. Such reliance, even if perceived as necessary for a Jewish majority, could be interpreted as undermining the electoral outcome for the bloc that secured a Jewish majority.
Further shifts from double-envelope ballots are not expected to dramatically alter the balance, with doubts about the "Economic Reservists" party reaching the threshold to gain seats. While these ballots might transfer a mandate or two between non-Zionist and Zionist parties, the overall picture of Netanyahu's bloc leading the "change bloc" by ten seats or more is likely to persist.
The opposition reportedly maximized its efforts, with the "change bloc" voters achieving over 70% turnout and Arab voters exceeding 77%, partly due to voters from abroad and perceived government failures. The political landscape is described as right-wing and hostile to Arabs, with demographics playing a decisive role. The article notes the tragic aspect of Arab electoral success, with nearly half of Arab respondents in a 2025 survey expressing despair about their ability to influence outcomes, despite high turnout aimed at removing the Netanyahu government and Itamar Ben-Gvir.
Shas is identified as a major failure of the election, projected to drop from 11 to 6-7 seats. The party's formula relies on attracting Zionist voters, but its efforts to pass an exemption law for military service during wartime reportedly alienated its base, leading to electoral consequences.
