Arab Parties Face Major Dilemma Post-Election Amidst Uncertain Results

Ihab Qadah, Director of Research in the Arab Society at the Madgam Institute for Research, stated that it is too early to definitively assess opinion polls as vote counting continues, highlighting that Arab voter turnout and the resulting representation in the next Knesset are key indicators to watch. Initial estimates suggest Arab voter turnout could reach 74% to 75%, potentially translating to 16 to 18 seats for Arab parties, with Madgam projecting 17 seats and Channel 12 estimating 18. Qadah emphasized that the challenge extends beyond the number of Arab seats, focusing also on the 'change bloc's' ability to surpass Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc in actual votes. He noted that Gadi Eisenkot's camp narrowing the gap was a surprise, given prior polls showing him ahead. Contrary to expectations of a decline for the current government due to security issues and a lack of safety felt by both Arab and Jewish citizens, preliminary results presented a different picture. Qadah warned that new elections would pose a significant challenge for the Arab community, as the high turnout in the recent vote, driven by mobilization efforts, would be difficult to replicate. He believes the Arab community might not achieve 70% turnout again, potentially benefiting Netanyahu's right-wing bloc. Furthermore, the continued strength of Eisenkot's party in a new election is not guaranteed, as it may have benefited from specific, temporary political circumstances. Qadah stressed that even an increased number of Arab Knesset members, up to 20, would be insufficient for political change if Netanyahu and the far-right form the next government. He concluded that the situation remains fluid, with final results determining the next phase, but avoiding new elections might be the preferable option.