Netanyahu Bets on Waiting Game for Coalition After Election

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu awoke to a post-election morning with his Likud party remaining the largest in the Knesset, but without a clear coalition majority. With 70% of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to secure 54 seats, compared to 47 for the "change bloc" and 19 for Arab parties. Political analysts suggest Netanyahu may adopt a strategy of prolonged waiting rather than immediately pursuing coalition negotiations, anticipating that a leader from the "change bloc" might eventually agree to talks.

According to political commentator Amit Segal, Netanyahu might be employing a "political chicken" strategy, waiting to see who compromises first. Segal estimates that within one to two months, one of the "change bloc" leaders, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, or Gadi Eisenkot, may agree to a partnership, enabling government formation. If not, the possibility of repeat elections remains. This strategy aligns with Netanyahu's constitutional position, as the outgoing government continues to serve until a new one is formed, allowing him to remain Prime Minister even if he fails to assemble a coalition.

Mathematically, adding Bennett's 11 seats or Lieberman's 8 seats could provide Netanyahu with a majority, provided his current partners remain. However, Bennett, Lieberman, and Eisenkot have all publicly pledged not to sit in a government led by Netanyahu, with Eisenkot being the most vocal and even vowing to resign if he breaks this promise. Lieberman has echoed this sentiment, urging his "change bloc" partners to commit to not joining a Netanyahu-led government, and Bennett also indicated a preference for the "change bloc" leaders to select a mutually agreed-upon candidate to form the government.

Political commentator Daphna Liel believes Netanyahu might target the right-wing factions of the "change bloc," specifically Lieberman and Bennett. She identified mutual distrust among the "change bloc" leaders as a significant hurdle to a unity government. Another challenge within Netanyahu's own bloc involves the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, whose status regarding the conscription law for yeshiva students remains unresolved. Netanyahu's commitment to advancing this law could create friction with Bennett, Lieberman, and Eisenkot, who hold differing views on the conscription of Haredi men.

Meanwhile, the "change bloc" faces its own numerical challenges, particularly concerning the Arab parties. While their combined seats could form a majority, Lieberman's opposition to a government reliant on Arab parties, along with reservations from Bennett, complicates any potential agreement. Following the election, the vote count will be finalized, official results released, and consultations will begin with President Yitzhak Herzog, who will task a Knesset member with forming a government. The designated individual will have 28 days, extendable by 14, to succeed. If they fail, further options under the Basic Law: The Government will be explored. During this period, Bennett, Lieberman, and Eisenkot will need to decide their next steps if a viable alternative government cannot be formed, while Netanyahu could continue as caretaker Prime Minister, potentially leveraging this time gap as Segal suggests.