Netanyahu's Lead Doesn't Guarantee Government Formation, Analyst Says

Initial results from the Knesset elections show Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc leading, but not with a sufficient majority to form a government alone, according to political science lecturer Mohammed Khlaileh. Khlaileh stated that the significant gap between early election samples and the actual vote count, with about 40% processed, raises questions about the accuracy of the initial projections and voter behavior. He noted that final estimates will take more time as votes from Arab towns and dual-envelope ballots are still being counted.

Khlaileh projected that the Joint List and the United Arab List might each secure around seven seats, with one additional seat contested between them. He criticized the "change bloc" for its approach to Arab parties, suggesting it reflects a deeper issue in Israeli political culture that excludes Arab citizens from government formation calculations. This, he argued, benefits the right wing by granting it political and electoral gains, as leaders in the change bloc have shown little interest in the Arab vote or potential cooperation.

The increased turnout in the Arab community, which surprised many, is a key factor preventing Netanyahu from reaching the 61-seat majority needed for government formation, Khlaileh explained. He attributed this high participation not solely to the efforts of the Joint List or the United Arab List, but to Arab voters' awareness of the political juncture and their desire for change following the current government's policies. He emphasized that Arab voters acted responsibly, making their participation a significant factor in political calculations.

Looking ahead, Khlaileh anticipates political instability and potential external pressure for a national unity government led by Netanyahu. However, the final outcome depends on the final seat counts. He also suggested Netanyahu might attempt to lure opposition members or engineer splits within opposition parties, leveraging figures in the change bloc with right-leaning stances. Alternatively, if a coalition proves impossible, some current coalition partners, like Haredi parties or Otzma Yehudit, might be excluded.

The change bloc faces a dilemma regarding Arab parties, appearing unwilling to risk forming a government reliant on their support, while new elections could be detrimental. Khlaileh concluded that the political landscape remains complex and uncertain, and Netanyahu's initial lead does not guarantee his success in forming the next government.