Arab Parties Hold Key to Israeli Government Formation After Election

A record 78% voter turnout marked Israel's recent elections, which preliminary results suggest were a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. The right-wing bloc, expected to win around 52 seats according to exit polls, has lost significant ground from previous projections of 68 seats. Despite this shift, Netanyahu's government is not guaranteed to fall, as the path to forming a new government remains complex.

A potential, unprecedented minority government could be formed by the "Change bloc," but it would require historic decisions from leaders Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Avigdor Lieberman. This scenario hinges on recognizing the growing influence of Mansour Abbas and his party, Ra'am, and potentially including them in a coalition, despite prior commitments against it. However, even with Ra'am's support, the Change bloc may not secure a stable majority, depending also on the Joint List, which has reportedly doubled its strength.

The significant gains by Arab parties, projected to double their previous ten seats, are seen as the central story of these elections, positioning them to shape Israel's future political landscape. Their increased influence is partly attributed to the strong opposition from Netanyahu, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and other right-wing parties, which mobilized Arab voters. Any party seeking to form a government now requires the support or abstention of these Arab parties.

Gadi Eisenkot, now the de facto leader of the Change bloc, appears poised to pursue forming a government at any cost to oust Netanyahu, potentially attracting support from smaller factions later. This move is described as a bold political adventure. Eisenkot has also publicly urged Netanyahu not to attack Iran for political reasons while leading a transitional government and has backed the IDF Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, against such a move.

Avigdor Lieberman has expressed apprehension about a minority government reliant on Arab parties and prefers to wait for final results. His potential refusal to join such a government could lead to new elections within six months, allowing Netanyahu to continue as caretaker prime minister. Netanyahu's Likud party emerged as the largest single party, a goal he apparently sought, though it came at the expense of his right-wing allies. The article suggests Netanyahu may have missed an opportunity by not fully supporting a potential candidate, Ofer Vinter, who could have brought additional seats.

Eisenkot stated that a "worthy leader would announce his retirement from political life," referring to Netanyahu, but anticipates Netanyahu will cling to power and prepare for future elections, emphasizing the Iranian threat. The article concludes by noting the potential for a strong Knesset to enact significant legislation and overturn previous government decisions.