Arab Parties Could Determine Israel's Next Government Coalition

Arab parties may play a pivotal role in forming Israel's next government, as preliminary results from the recent parliamentary elections suggest no single bloc has secured a clear majority. With the Knesset requiring at least 61 out of 120 seats for a majority, the support of Arab parties could be crucial if neither the bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu nor its rivals can independently reach the threshold. The Ra'am party, led by Mansour Abbas, has indicated a willingness to discuss cooperation, but Abbas stated that concrete agreements are premature until the potential coalition's configuration becomes clear. Ra'am previously participated in the government formed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021.

However, Arab political forces are not unified. Ra'am aims for direct government participation, while the Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad, is open to supporting a government that replaces Netanyahu without necessarily joining it. The Joint List's primary demands include funding and oversight for a plan to combat crime in the Arab sector, alongside addressing national policy issues such as settlements and war funding. This means potential partners would need to negotiate not only political appointments but also specific measures in security, public order, and national policy.

Former MK Gadi Eisenkot had previously outlined conditions for cooperation with Arab parties, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, acceptance of the Declaration of Independence, and designating Hamas as a terrorist organization. Eisenkot had expressed doubt that any Arab party met all these criteria. Other Israeli politicians hold differing views; former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett opposes repeating the 2021 coalition model with Ra'am due to its perceived non-Zionist nature, while Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, supports Ra'am's inclusion.

The aftermath of the October 7th Hamas attack has further complicated relations. Balad chairman Sami Abu Shehadeh initially published an article analyzing the attack's significance without condemning the atrocities, later apologizing and stating he lacked full information at the time. Ra'am MK Iman Khatib-Yassin also questioned reports of atrocities and sexual violence, later apologizing and retracting her statements. Mansour Abbas, however, rejected attempts to downplay the attack's scale. These incidents continue to influence some Israeli politicians' attitudes toward cooperation with Arab parties.

The final composition of the government will depend on the final vote count and the ability of political forces to reach agreements. Key issues include the terms of support for a future cabinet, funding for crime-fighting programs, national policy, and Israel's security. The extent to which representatives of Arab citizens can influence state decision-making will also be significant. The current situation represents a potential influence rather than a finalized alliance.