Israel Faces Political Uncertainty as President Herzog Weighs Mandate

President Isaac Herzog is set to play a crucial role in forming Israel's next government, holding the decision on who will receive the first mandate to assemble a coalition. While official results are expected in several days, with the Election Committee chairman estimating delivery by next Wednesday, Herzog's office anticipates beginning quiet consultations by Friday. The process of parties visiting the President's Residence will commence after next Wednesday, after which Herzog will task the candidate with the best chance of forming a government, not necessarily the leader of the largest party. This period is marked by significant political uncertainty, compounded by a sensitive security situation and upcoming US midterm elections.

There is speculation about potential intervention from the White House, particularly from US President Donald Trump. Sources close to Trump have been in contact with Israeli counterparts to gauge the election results, the prospects for a unity government, and the implications of the largest party's role. The US reportedly prefers a stable government over a far-right coalition involving figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir. A source close to Trump noted that while Eisenkot has ruled out a unity government with Netanyahu, Netanyahu currently lacks the ability to form a right-wing government.

The "Change Bloc" fears Netanyahu might instigate escalation to complicate their efforts or force a "national emergency government" with Gadi Eisenkot, an option Eisenkot has vehemently rejected, stating he would resign if it occurred. Current projections suggest no bloc will secure the 61 seats needed for a majority, partly due to the strong performance of Arab parties, estimated at 18 mandates combined. This points towards a complex political period for Israel, alongside its challenging geopolitical and security landscape.

Most polls indicate a slight advantage for the "Change Bloc" led by Eisenkot, with 52 mandates compared to Netanyahu's bloc with 50. Ahead of the election, Trump issued statements of support for Netanyahu, leading to concerns within the "Change Bloc" that he might intervene again if the results are inconclusive. Some sources suggest Trump's support for Netanyahu was linked to a promise of a unity government, while others believe it was compensation for a postponed strike on Iran. President Herzog has publicly remained cautious about a unity government, despite earlier reports of his initiative for such a scenario. He is also awaiting Netanyahu's response to a plea bargain proposal.