Netanyahu's Path to Power: Unity Government or Opposition Defections

Despite exit polls indicating the right-wing bloc may fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, the Likud party is confident that Benjamin Netanyahu will receive the mandate to form a government. This confidence stems from the perceived lack of a consensus alternative candidate on the center-left who could secure 61 recommendations for the President, coupled with Likud being the largest party by a significant margin. Netanyahu has a history of forming coalitions even with fewer initial seats.

Three main scenarios are being considered, all requiring political breakthroughs beyond Netanyahu's natural bloc. The first is a unity government with Gadi Eisenkot's Independence party, a path favored by the President's Residence. Such a coalition, including the ultra-Orthodox parties and Independence, could yield 65-68 seats, offering broad legitimacy. Eisenkot would likely demand a rotation agreement, a freeze on judicial reforms, and a government of consensus. For Netanyahu, this offers stability and a more statesmanlike image, reducing reliance on the ultra-Orthodox. For Eisenkot, it's a risky move that could alienate his base, which promised change.

Another possibility involves forming a government with either Avigdor Lieberman or Naftali Bennett, a tactic Netanyahu has used before to divide the opposition bloc. This could involve offering Lieberman the Defense portfolio and a softened conscription law, or Bennett senior ministerial positions and a promise of a future joint list. However, trust is a major hurdle, as both have vowed not to serve under Netanyahu, and their supporters are largely opposed to him. Netanyahu would likely need to make significant concessions on portfolios, policy, and judicial reforms.

A third option is to recruit defectors from opposition parties, a complex political maneuver if larger alliances fail. This would involve securing two to three Knesset members from parties like Yisrael Beiteinu, Independence, or Bennett's faction. While the law makes it difficult to split less than a third of a faction, a government could be formed with external support or abstentions. Targeted individuals would likely be right-wing lawmakers unwilling to sit with Arab parties or those who oppose serving with the Joint List. This approach carries the risk of an unstable government and accusations of vote-stealing.

A significant obstacle is the '59 trap,' where the right-wing bloc secures only 59 seats. In such a scenario, the center-left-Arab bloc could reach 61 seats. The new Knesset could convene and, if the opposition gains control, potentially replace the current Knesset Speaker, Amir Ohana, with their own appointee. This new speaker would control the legislative agenda, potentially delaying legislation and becoming a powerful bargaining chip against Netanyahu. In an extreme case, if opposition leaders collectively recommend a single candidate to the President, they might attempt to secure the first mandate to form a government. A repeat of the 2019 election scenario, leading to repeated elections, is also possible if no one agrees to sit with Netanyahu.