Netanyahu's Path to Power: Analyzing 'Trap-59' Scenarios
Translated & summarized from Mignews by baba
Observer Matty Tuchfeld of "Channel 14" outlined three scenarios for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form a government, despite exit polls suggesting a potential shortfall. These include a national unity government with Gadi Eisenkot, forming a coalition with Avigdor Lieberman or Naftali Bennett, or attracting defectors. A key challenge is the "Trap-59," where a narrow opposition majority could elect its own speaker, potentially blocking Netanyahu. Repeat elections are also a possibility if no coalition can be formed.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Benjamin Netanyahu faces three potential scenarios to form a government, according to Matty Tuchfeld.
- A national unity government with Gadi Eisenkot is one option, requiring compromise on judicial reform.
- Forming a coalition with Avigdor Lieberman or Naftali Bennett is another strategy, facing trust issues.
- Attracting defectors from other parties presents a risky path to forming a government.
- The "Trap-59" scenario could see the opposition elect a speaker, undermining Netanyahu's mandate.
- Repeat elections are a possibility if no stable coalition can be formed.
Despite exit poll data suggesting a right-wing bloc might fall short of a majority, "Likud" remains confident that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be tasked with forming the next government. This optimism stems from the opposition's lack of a unified candidate with sufficient recommendations and "Likud's" continued status as the largest party by a significant margin. According to "Channel 14" observer Matty Tuchfeld, Netanyahu has a history of leveraging a smaller mandate into a stable coalition.
Tuchfeld outlines three primary scenarios for Netanyahu, each requiring outreach beyond his traditional bloc. One option is a "government of national unity" with Gadi Eisenkot, favored by the president's administration and other parties. Such a coalition, potentially including "Likud," "Religious Zionism," the ultra-Orthodox parties, and "Yashar!," could yield 65-68 mandates. This would likely involve Eisenkot demanding rotation in leadership, a freeze on judicial reforms, and a government of compromise, offering Netanyahu stability but at the cost of dependence on the ultra-Orthodox. For Eisenkot, joining Netanyahu would risk alienating his voter base who expect change.
Another scenario involves forming a government with Avigdor Lieberman or Naftali Bennett, a tactic Tuchfeld describes as splitting the "change bloc." This could involve offering Lieberman the Defense Ministry and concessions on conscription, or Bennett high-ranking positions and promises of future joint lists. The main challenge here is trust, as both leaders have previously vowed not to serve under Netanyahu, and their supporters are hostile to him. The price for Netanyahu could include concessions in his legal cases and a freeze on judicial reforms.
The final, riskier option is to attract defectors from parties like "Yisrael Beiteinu," "Yashar!," or "Bayahad." While laws make it difficult to split factions, a government could be formed with external support or abstentions. Potential targets are right-wing lawmakers hesitant to align with Arab parties. This path carries the risk of an unstable government and a reputation for "vote-buying."
Tuchfeld identifies "Trap-59" as a critical obstacle: if the right-wing bloc secures only 59 seats or fewer, and the left-center-Arab bloc gains 61 or more, the new Knesset could elect its own speaker, undermining Netanyahu's position. In such a case, opposition leaders might present a unified candidate to the president, attempting to deny Netanyahu the first mandate. The author also suggests the possibility of repeat elections, similar to 2019, if the opposition remains unyielding, potentially causing some left-wing candidates to withdraw from a new campaign.
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