Israel Election Results Inconclusive, Government Formation Uncertain

Israel's recent general election has concluded without a clear victor, leaving the formation of a new government uncertain. Projections from leading Israeli television channels indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party emerged as the largest single party in the Knesset. However, Netanyahu's bloc, comprising several right-wing and religious parties, is estimated to have secured only 50 out of 120 seats, falling significantly short of the 61 needed for an absolute majority.

The centrist Jaschar party, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, placed second. Eisenkot's bloc, also composed of multiple parties, was projected to be just two seats ahead of Netanyahu's bloc but also failed to achieve a majority. This outcome has created significant ambiguity regarding the next government and who will lead it.

Opposition leaders have interpreted the results as a mandate for them to form a government. Eisenkot announced his intention to replace the Netanyahu government, stating he would "immediately work to implement the will of the voters." He argued that the election results signify a loss of confidence in Netanyahu and his government, particularly concerning the events of October 7. Opposition leader Yair Lapid declared that the "Netanyahu bloc suffered a devastating defeat."

For Eisenkot to form a government, he would likely require the support of Arab parties, either as coalition partners or by tolerating a minority government. However, not all parties within the opposition bloc are amenable to this. The Islamic-conservative Raam party and the United List, comprising predominantly Arab parties like Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad, were projected to win a combined 18 seats.

Political scientist Elizabeth Tsurkov suggested on X that the opposition could form a government supported by Arab parties "if they overcome their racism." Mansour Abbas, head of the Raam party, told TV channel N12 that the high voter turnout reflected a transformation of frustration and despair within the Arab population into hope, attributing this to the Netanyahu government's poor treatment of Arab citizens. He expressed hope for a majority coalition between Eisenkot's bloc and Raam.

The Raam party made history in 2021 by becoming the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli government coalition under then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a move seen as a significant step toward integrating the Arab minority. However, Bennett's coalition eventually collapsed due to disagreements. In August of the current year, former Deputy Minister of Police Yoav Segalovitz joined Raam's list, aiming to bridge divides between Jewish and Arab communities.

If government formation fails, Netanyahu could remain in office as head of a caretaker government. This scenario risks plunging Israel into a prolonged political crisis, potentially leading to repeated elections, similar to the period between 2019 and 2022 when Israelis voted five times without forming stable majorities. Such a political deadlock could paralyze the country for months, especially amid unresolved regional conflicts and significant security challenges, particularly concerning Iran.

The election saw the highest voter turnout in over a quarter-century, with 77.7 percent of eligible voters participating, the highest since 1999. This surge in participation, a 7.1 percentage point increase from the previous election, underscores the importance Israelis placed on the first election since the October 7 Hamas attack and the subsequent Gaza war. Key campaign issues included the state of Israeli democracy, controversial judicial reforms, the debate over ultra-Orthodox conscription, and Netanyahu's accountability for the October 7 attacks, all of which have deeply divided Israeli society and fueled ongoing protests.