Elections Committee Member Warns of Potential Loss of Haredi Mandates
Translated & summarized from JDN by baba
Avraham Yustman, a member of the Central Elections Committee, warned that high voter turnout in non-Haredi sectors could reduce the number of Knesset seats for Haredi parties. He noted historically high turnout in left-wing and Arab communities, while expressing concern that the Haredi sector must achieve over 90% turnout to maintain its current representation if the national average reaches 80%. Yustman also suggested that United Torah Judaism might lose a potential eighth seat, and smaller parties are unlikely to pass the electoral threshold. Final results are expected by Thursday evening.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Elections Committee member warns high turnout may cost Haredi parties Knesset seats.
- Turnout in left-wing and Arab communities described as historically high.
- Haredi turnout must exceed 90% if national average hits 80% to maintain power.
- United Torah Judaism may lose a potential eighth Knesset seat, says committee member.
- Smaller parties, including Bennett's, unlikely to pass electoral threshold.
- Final election results expected by Thursday evening.
With two hours remaining until polls closed and amid high voter turnout across Israel, Avraham Yustman, a member of the Central Elections Committee, issued a warning about a potential decrease in the political power of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties. In a special interview with the "Information for All" news line of the JDN media group on Tuesday evening, Yustman presented the current situation based on voting data, expressing concern that increased participation in other sectors could alter the distribution of Knesset seats.
As of 6 p.m., Yustman reported a 66.7% turnout, a 9% increase from the previous election, with an expectation that the final turnout could reach approximately 80%, a historically high figure. He noted significant voter engagement in areas identified with the left-wing and in Arab communities, describing the latter's turnout as "historic" and "unprecedented," with participation rates between 60% and 70%.
Yustman explained that unlike in past elections, the real-time publication of turnout data by locality allows for closer monitoring of participation trends among different population groups. He highlighted that while this data indicates participation levels, it does not definitively predict voting patterns.
A particular concern was raised regarding the Haredi sector's turnout. Yustman stated that while the Haredi public typically votes about 10% higher than the national average, a significantly higher turnout is now needed to maintain their relative strength. He projected that if the overall national turnout reaches the expected 80% and the Haredi turnout does not exceed 90%, it could lead to a "serious problem" and potentially jeopardize seats considered secure.
Specifically addressing the United Torah Judaism party, Yustman expressed pessimism about their chances of securing an eighth Knesset seat, hoping instead they would retain their seventh. He attributed this to the overall voting trends, not actual results. Yustman also estimated that the votes needed to pass the electoral threshold might reach around 190,000, suggesting that smaller lists, including those of Naftali Bennett and Yigal Zalkha, were unlikely to cross it. He, however, believed Avigdor Lieberman's list would likely enter the Knesset despite some uncertainty during the day.
Yustman concluded by stating that optimism would be warranted only after all votes are counted and it's confirmed that everyone has voted. He anticipated final results, including soldier votes, by Thursday evening, but noted that trends observed on election night could provide early indications of potential shifts in mandate distribution.
