Record Voter Turnout Could Raise Knesset Threshold to 190,000 Votes
Translated & summarized from Now 14 by baba
Israel's Central Elections Committee estimates an 80% voter turnout for the 26th Knesset elections, the highest since 1969. This surge means approximately 190,000 votes will be needed to pass the electoral threshold, about 35,000 more than in 2022. Each Knesset seat will also cost more votes, potentially between 44,000 and 46,000, making it harder for smaller parties to gain representation.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Voter turnout may reach 80%, requiring 190,000 votes to enter the Knesset.
- This is the highest turnout since 1969, significantly increasing the electoral threshold.
- Each Knesset seat could cost 44,000 to 46,000 votes, up from 36,228 in 2022.
- Higher turnout poses challenges for smaller parties struggling to cross the threshold.
- Turnout by 4 PM was 55.7%, a notable increase from 47.5% in 2022.
Israel's Central Elections Committee Acting Director-General Dean Livne estimated that voter turnout for the 26th Knesset elections could reach 80%, a level not seen in over five decades. As of 4 PM on election day, 55.7% of eligible voters had cast ballots, significantly higher than the 47.5% recorded at the same time in the 2022 elections. Livne described this figure as the highest since the committee began tracking daily turnout in 1973, and if it holds, it would mark the first time since 1969 that turnout exceeds 80%.
This high turnout is expected to significantly impact the distribution of Knesset seats. With 7,331,981 eligible voters, an 80% turnout would mean approximately 5,865,600 voters participating, over a million more than in 2022. Consequently, the electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes would require around 190,000 votes, an increase of about 35,000 votes compared to the 154,854 needed in the previous election.
The cost of each Knesset seat is also projected to rise. In 2022, approximately 36,228 valid votes were needed per seat. With an 80% turnout, and assuming a similar proportion of votes for parties failing to pass the threshold, each seat could cost between 44,000 and 46,000 votes. This means parties would need an additional 8,000 to 10,000 votes per seat to maintain their current representation.
These numbers pose a particular challenge for smaller parties, which will need to garner tens of thousands of additional votes just to cross the electoral threshold. Larger parties, conversely, stand to benefit from higher turnout and existing surplus vote agreements. According to a recent poll, five parties are currently below the threshold, with the closest, 'Miluimnikim Ve'Heklit', having only 1.9% of the vote.
