Israeli Arms Deals Hinge on Election Results Amid Global Scrutiny

The outcomes of Israel's elections are poised to significantly impact a range of substantial arms deals that Israeli defense industries have been pursuing with various nations. According to a senior defense official, these transactions are awaiting "public legitimacy to continue and advance them to contract signing." The official added, "All eyes are on us, and everyone wants to understand our direction." This situation arises against a backdrop of increasing global criticism of Israel due to the prolonged war in Gaza and settler violence against Palestinians in the territories, actions allegedly occurring with the tacit approval of government officials, the military, and police. This criticism exposes Israel to the genuine threat of severe sanctions, including trade restrictions, arms embargoes, and expanded limitations on exporting components and raw materials used in weapons manufacturing.

While defense ministries and armies worldwide value Israeli weaponry, the willingness of leaders to procure it is often influenced by public opinion in their countries. "We are constantly speaking with leaders and army commanders and sense that they strongly desire our systems, but are forced to be attentive to public opinion, which is difficult to appease when sentiment toward Israel is negative. Some countries conduct secret deals with us, but in others, decisions on significant and large-scale transactions will only be made once the situation in Israel becomes clearer," the defense official told Calcalist. The Ministry of Defense is confident that Israeli companies have not yet reached their full global business potential and is working to maintain and increase this positive trend through expanded Government-to-Government deals, which offer shorter timelines and bypass bureaucratic hurdles. A recent example is a deal signed two days ago between the Ministry of Defense and Cyprus's Ministry of Defense, wherein Israel Shipyards will supply the Cypriot Navy with a patrol vessel equipped with Rafael systems, valued at approximately $150 million.

Beyond Israeli election results, political shifts in other countries also affect their willingness to engage in new arms deals with Israel. During his tenure, relations between the two countries strengthened, benefiting Israeli industries like Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries. However, the change in leadership raises uncertainty about the future of Serbia's close defense ties with Israel. Prior to his electoral defeat, Vučić inaugurated a new drone manufacturing plant near Belgrade, a joint venture between Elbit Systems and the local company Yugoimport, expected to employ around 100 workers. While many nations curtailed or halted arms and raw material shipments to Israel during the Gaza war, Serbia supplied essential munitions, including 155mm artillery shells. The Israeli defense establishment is monitoring these developments, particularly regarding Serbia's future arms export policies to conflict zones and whether the new leadership will maintain close ties with Israeli industries. This comes amid a substantial Elbit deal in Serbia, signed in the summer of 2025, worth approximately $1.65 billion for advanced unmanned aerial vehicles, artillery systems, and munitions. Another deal from late 2024 involved Serbia ordering long-range rockets and Hermes 900 UAVs from Elbit for $335 million.

Election results in Brazil also present challenges for Israeli defense industries. Executives who hoped for a victory by Jair Bolsonaro were likely disappointed by the re-election of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has adopted an anti-Israel stance, particularly since the Gaza war. Despite da Silva's hostile approach, Israeli defense companies are pursuing several arms deals and collaborations in Brazil, including Elbit's supply of Hermes 900 UAVs to the Brazilian Air Force. Two years ago, Rafael supplied Brazil's army with Spike anti-tank missiles ordered in 2021. Elbit is also in line for a significant deal to supply dozens of ATMOS self-propelled howitzers to the Brazilian army, valued at about $210 million. The signing ceremony for the first two howitzers, initially planned for today, was canceled and has no new date. Defense sources suggest that the long-term nature of military procurement programs and deepening collaborations between Israeli and local manufacturers, who produce based on transferred knowledge, may make it difficult for leaders to translate sharp public criticism into tangible restrictions, even with anti-Israel sentiments.