Four Key Issues May Sway Israeli Voters in Upcoming Knesset Elections

Israel's upcoming Knesset elections are drawing significant attention, with political and societal discussions centering on four critical issues: accountability for failures preceding the October 7, 2023, attack; the future of Israeli security doctrine amidst multiple fronts; the contentious issue of ultra-Orthodox Jewish conscription; and the rising cost of living and economic pressures on families. These issues extend beyond partisan competition, touching upon internal security, the relationship between political and military institutions, the role of religion in public life, and the next government's ability to balance war demands with civilian needs. Observers suggest the election results will shape the ruling coalition, with the resolution of these matters depending on political balances and the incoming government's willingness to enact policy changes.

The fallout from the October 7 Hamas attack remains a dominant theme, highlighting security, intelligence, and military failures that shocked Israeli society. The attack, which resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths in Israel according to Israeli figures, has reignited debates over political and military responsibility. While a segment of the public and opposition parties advocate for an independent official inquiry, the Netanyahu government has opposed this, proposing a differently constituted committee with political input. Critics fear this approach could compromise the committee's independence and limit its ability to assign responsibility. This dispute is seen as a broader question of accountability for a major security failure and the readiness of leadership to face comprehensive scrutiny.

The October 7 attack and subsequent conflicts have also prompted a re-evaluation of Israel's long-standing security doctrine, which relied on intelligence superiority, military deterrence, and swift conflict resolution. The ongoing military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank, alongside confrontations with Iran, have tested this approach. Analysts question Israel's capacity to manage multiple simultaneous fronts and maintain military readiness, especially with frequent reserve force call-ups. The extensive military operations have drawn international criticism, particularly regarding civilian casualties and destruction in Gaza. The next government faces the challenge of the costs of continued conflict, foreign relations, and establishing security arrangements to prevent future wars.

The exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service is a major point of contention, particularly given the military's personnel needs. Ultra-Orthodox parties seek to maintain current arrangements, emphasizing Torah study as central to their community's identity. Conversely, there are growing demands for more equitable conscription. This debate has evolved into a broader discussion about the distribution of national burdens, the relationship between religion and state, and the influence of religious parties on public policy. The role of these parties in forming government coalitions, particularly their stances on conscription and funding for religious institutions, significantly impacts coalition negotiations.

Rising living costs, especially for food and housing, present a significant challenge for many Israelis, despite past economic growth. International data indicates Israel has high prices compared to other developed economies, attributed to factors like limited housing supply, trade restrictions, and weak competition. The ongoing wars have exacerbated economic challenges, increasing defense spending and mobilization costs, straining the national budget and resource allocation. High military expenditure may limit the government's ability to invest in civilian sectors or address the cost of living crisis. The economic file is thus intertwined with security concerns, impacting public spending, government priorities, and the capacity to alleviate household burdens. The next government will be tested not only on security but also on its ability to manage chronic economic problems affecting daily life.