Senior Analyst: Iran Confrontation May Erupt During Next Government Formation

Senior political commentator Amit Segal suggested that a renewed confrontation with Iran is imminent, referencing reports of a dispute between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir regarding a potential operation in Iran. Segal stated that the primary obstacle to an attack is not the Chief of Staff's position, but rather U.S. President Donald Trump's stance. He commented on an IDF spokesperson's clarification statement, which he characterized as a denial that did not actually refute the existence of a dispute. Segal elaborated that even if the Chief of Staff favors an attack, disagreements might exist over specific actions within a broader plan. However, he maintained that these internal disagreements are not the reason preventing an attack. "The issue has always been Donald Trump. Trump does not want this before the midterm elections," Segal said, referring to the U.S. congressional elections scheduled for November 3rd. Segal pointed to increased aerial activity and a report by Barak Ravid about an Israeli Air Force sortie near Iran's border as indicators that a confrontation could resume soon. He asserted, "It is clear to everyone that the event in Iran is approaching." Nevertheless, Segal estimated that there was no serious intention to launch an attack before the Israeli elections, stating that Netanyahu did not demand an attack specifically before the elections, nor did the Chief of Staff oppose the attack itself. Segal believes that any disagreements between political and military leadership are secondary to the U.S. administration's position in determining the timing of an operation.