Gambling Markets Show Ex-IDF Chief Eisenkot as Favorite for Prime Minister
Translated & summarized from Ice by baba
Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF Chief of Staff and head of the Yisrael! party, is now the favorite to become Israel's next prime minister according to global betting markets, holding a 58% chance. This contrasts with Israeli opinion polls, which show a closer race between parties. Betting data indicates Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is second with 26% odds, followed by Naftali Bennett at 12%.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot leads global betting markets with a 58% chance of becoming Israel's next prime minister.
- Betting on Polymarket shows Benjamin Netanyahu with 26% and Naftali Bennett with 12% odds.
- Total betting volume on Polymarket for the next prime minister race has reached approximately $55 million.
- Israeli opinion polls show Eisenkot's Yisrael! party leading with 22-23 seats, followed by Likud.
- A Channel 14 poll shows the Likud leading with 30 seats, while Yisrael! receives 20 seats.
Former IDF Chief of Staff and Yisrael! party chairman Gadi Eisenkot has surged to the forefront in global betting markets regarding the next prime minister of Israel. On the Polymarket platform, Eisenkot holds a 58% chance of becoming the next prime minister, with total betting volume reaching approximately $55 million. This represents a significant jump from 51% just two days prior and marks a late surge for Eisenkot.
Until March, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the clear favorite with over 60% odds. In April, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett saw a surprise rise, creating a close race where Eisenkot had less than 12%. A dramatic shift occurred in June when the three candidates were in a near tie around 30%. Since then, Bennett's odds have plummeted to single digits, Netanyahu has remained stable, and Eisenkot has experienced a sharp increase.
According to the betting data, Eisenkot is now at 58%, Netanyahu at 26%, Bennett at 12%, and Avigdor Lieberman at 2%. The Polymarket platform allows betting exclusively through cryptocurrency, where users purchase "shares" that pay $1 upon a successful outcome. For example, a share predicting Eisenkot's victory costs 57.9 cents, yielding a net profit of 42.1 cents per share if he wins.
In contrast to the betting markets, Israeli opinion polls present a tighter race. Surveys from Channels 12, 13, and Kan 11 indicate that Eisenkot's Yisrael! party would receive 22-23 seats, the Likud party 19-21 seats, and the Bennett-Lapid union 14-15 seats.
Other polls show slightly different distributions. A Channel 15 poll placed the Likud at 26 seats and Yisrael! at 21 seats, with the Bennett-Lapid union at 12 seats. A Channel 14 poll from the previous Thursday showed the Likud leading with 30 seats, Yisrael! with 20 seats, and the Bennett-Lapid union with 11 seats.
Mentioned
The same event, reported separately by each outlet. Open a few to compare what different newsrooms emphasize — and what they leave out.
Haredi 1Other 1
Not the same event — other stories that share this one’s people, places, or theme: background, reactions, and follow-ups.
