Israel's Hesitation on Palestinian Elections Driven by Security and Political Concerns
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Israeli political and security circles believe Palestinian elections are a "smokescreen" and that Israel is unwilling to hold them due to fears of Hamas's rise and potential empowerment. Key concerns include Hamas gaining legitimacy, the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, increased international pressure on Israel, and the implications of voting in East Jerusalem. Despite preferring the status quo and security coordination, Israel is preparing for extreme scenarios, with its main interest being to prevent or delay elections.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israel fears Hamas gaining legitimacy and power through Palestinian elections, recalling the 2006 legislative vote.
- Israeli security assessments suggest elections could empower Hamas and lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority.
- Holding elections in East Jerusalem is viewed by Israel as an infringement on its sovereignty over the capital.
- Israel prefers the current status quo and security coordination over the political uncertainty of Palestinian elections.
- The IDF is preparing for an "extreme scenario" where Palestinian security forces might turn their weapons on Israelis.
- Israel's primary interest is to prevent Palestinian elections or postpone them indefinitely.
Israeli political and security circles believe that any announcement of Palestinian elections is merely a "smokescreen" for the Palestinian public and the international community. They also assess that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah leadership will continue to seek pretexts for postponement as long as they cannot guarantee victory. Israeli assessments suggest Abbas is not in a hurry, hoping that Israeli election results will improve his standing and that a new Israeli government might release frozen tax funds and allow more Palestinian workers into Israel, bolstering the Palestinian Authority's economy and political power. However, Israel generally appears unwilling to hold general elections in the Palestinian Authority. This is evidenced by the Israeli government's criticism of a joint statement by the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, France, and Britain, who expressed regret over Abbas's decision to postpone the elections. Israel accused these nations of engaging in "imaginary democratic engineering in Ramallah" and clinging to the idea of an independent Palestinian state while ignoring reality.
Israel's reluctance stems from several security, political, and strategic considerations. Firstly, there is a fear of Hamas's rise, recalling the 2006 legislative elections where Hamas won a majority, leading to its takeover of Gaza in 2007. Israel opposes granting Hamas or other groups it deems extremist legitimacy through elections. Secondly, the Israeli security establishment fears that democratic elections in the West Bank could significantly empower Hamas and other armed factions, potentially leading to the collapse of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority. Hamas's participation in governance in the West Bank is viewed as a direct security threat.
Thirdly, Israel believes elections would grant the Palestinian Authority renewed democratic legitimacy, increasing international pressure for more Palestinian autonomy, advancing the political process, and potentially leading to recognition of a Palestinian state. Fourthly, holding elections in East Jerusalem is seen as an infringement on Israeli sovereignty over its declared capital. Fifthly, despite sharp criticism of the Palestinian Authority for incitement and weakness, Israel prefers the status quo, including security coordination, over the political uncertainty and potential unrest that could follow a collapse of the Authority's rule. Recent Israeli warnings have also surfaced regarding the possibility of Palestinian security forces turning their weapons, legally held in the West Bank with Israeli approval, towards Israeli settlements or soldiers. While intelligence does not indicate an imminent "turning of the guns" scenario, the IDF is preparing for such an "extreme scenario," according to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. Ultimately, Israel views general elections in the Palestinian Authority areas as a security and political risk, and its primary interest is to prevent them or render them meaningless through postponement.
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