Israeli Military Holds Drills Amid Threats, Analyst Calls for Strategy Over Rhetoric

The Israeli military (IDF) is conducting large-scale drills just one day before elections, amidst heightened security concerns stemming from threats by Iran and fears of potential attacks. The IDF is preparing for possible assaults from multiple fronts, increasing operational readiness and engaging in extensive exercises. Military analyst Avi Ashkenazi, writing for Maariv, argues that Israel needs a well-thought-out strategy rather than a show of force. He notes the IDF's simultaneous operations in Gaza, Judea and Samaria, the Golan Heights, and Lebanon, with additional forces deployed along the eastern and southern borders.

The current drills, the largest in years, involve four divisions, air force units, and the General Staff. The primary scenario simulates a multi-pronged attack from the east, north, and Judea and Samaria, incorporating lessons learned from the October 7, 2023, attacks and the subsequent war. Simultaneously, military units are enhancing their preparedness for their specific operational tasks.

Ashkenazi identifies Iran and Turkey as factors escalating tensions, alleging they are pressuring terrorist groups to launch attacks. He suggests these actions could aim to disrupt Israel's election campaign and influence the upcoming US elections. Israeli security forces, including the IDF and Shin Bet, are working to cut off Hamas's funding channels in Gaza and Judea and Samaria, targeting money transfers allegedly facilitated by Iran and Turkey through money changers and intermediaries.

Adding to the complexity, Ashkenazi warns that numerous political statements and threats from various regional actors could lead to dangerous miscalculations, where warnings are misinterpreted, potentially escalating the conflict. He criticizes the Israeli election campaign for excessive fear-mongering, citing examples like the display of images of Tel Aviv under a nuclear mushroom cloud, which he believes amplifies public anxiety instead of fostering substantive national security discussions.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent visit to an Iron Dome battery and his warning to adversaries about disproportionate retaliation are also noted. Ashkenazi suggests that discussions about a potential strike on Iran should be based on concrete data and risk assessments, clearly defining operational goals, assessing the readiness of US and Israeli forces for a prolonged campaign, and considering factors like weather and enemy capabilities. He advocates for Israel to move away from rhetoric suggesting an attack on Iran is imminent every few months, instead clearly defining red lines and the circumstances under which force is justified.

Ashkenazi believes a potential military operation against Iran should aim to weaken the regime enough to push it toward negotiations with the US and concessions on its nuclear program, missile, and drone development. However, he observes that Israeli parties have failed to present convincing plans for conflict resolution or long-term solutions to the Iranian issue during the election campaign, with public discourse dominated by threats and destructive scenarios. He stresses that national security requires serious analysis and concrete solutions, not political maneuvering, and that Israel needs a consistent strategy to reduce threats and avoid dangerous escalation.