Lebanese Shiites Favor Transferring Hezbollah Weapons to State, Poll Finds

A recent poll indicates a significant shift in sentiment among Lebanon's Shiite community, with a majority now favoring the transfer of Hezbollah's weapons to the Lebanese state. The survey, conducted in September by Institut Statistique Liban among 800 Lebanese Shiites, found that 66.4% support disarming Hezbollah and transferring its arsenal to state control, while 29.6% wish for the group to retain its weapons. This finding is notable given the Shiite community's historical support for Hezbollah. However, the poll also revealed that 59.5% of respondents still express some level of confidence in Hezbollah, with 37.1% reporting high confidence. The primary area of concern appears to be security, as 71.1% believe decisions regarding war and peace should exclusively rest with the Lebanese state, with only 5.9% supporting a predominant role for Hezbollah's leadership in this domain. The Lebanese army, in contrast, enjoys high trust, with nearly 78.5% of respondents expressing confidence in it and 51.1% viewing it as the best institution for long-term security. The poll also suggests that 67.4% of respondents feel Hezbollah did not achieve its objectives, or only partially, in the recent war with Israel, and 42.1% expressed negative emotions regarding the group's leadership and the conflict's consequences. These results contrast sharply with a May 2026 poll by Information International, where 87.5% opposed Hezbollah's disarmament. Researchers caution that differing methodologies and question phrasing could influence survey outcomes, making it difficult to definitively conclude a lasting shift in Shiite opinion. Nevertheless, factors like the war's destruction in southern Lebanon and fears of Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked infrastructure may be contributing to discontent. For instance, property owners in Tyre reportedly opposed the opening of a financial institution linked to Hezbollah due to concerns about their buildings becoming targets. Despite these shifts, Hezbollah continues to maintain its social and political base through reconstruction efforts, offering financial aid for damaged homes. The organization remains a crucial provider of employment, financial assistance, and services in areas where the Lebanese state's presence is weak.