Lebanese Skepticism Over Israeli Election Impact on Policy
Translated & summarized from Mignews by baba
Lebanese analysts and residents are doubtful that upcoming Israeli elections on October 27 will alter Israel's policy towards Lebanon. They do not expect a withdrawal from southern Lebanon or a significant policy change, regardless of who wins. Experts believe the Israeli approach to Lebanon is consistent across governments and that the current state of "neither war nor peace" is likely to continue. This comes amid ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah since October 2023.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Lebanese experts doubt Israeli elections will change policy towards Lebanon.
- No Israeli candidates promise withdrawal from southern Lebanon, analysts say.
- The Israeli political establishment's approach to Lebanon is seen as consistent.
- The current situation is described as a prolonged state of "neither war nor peace."
- Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in conflict since October 2023.
Lebanese residents and analysts express skepticism about any potential shift in Israeli policy towards their country following the upcoming Israeli elections scheduled for October 27. Sources speaking to Al Jazeera indicated a lack of belief that a change in Israeli leadership would lead to the cessation of the occupation of southern Lebanon or a significant revision of current policies. A Beirut-based lawyer, Fouad Debs, stated he does not anticipate substantial changes for Lebanon, even with a change in government in Israel. He suggested that any internal political shifts might only result in minor adjustments aimed at improving Israel's international image. Analyst Karim Sefeidin from the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy noted that no candidates in the current election campaign have promised troop withdrawal or acknowledged the situation in southern Lebanon as a crisis. Sefeidin believes the overall approach of the Israeli political establishment towards Lebanon is independent of any specific government. Lebanese researcher and podcaster Eliya Ayoub observed that criticism directed at Netanyahu by his political opponents primarily focuses on domestic issues and security, rather than humanitarian concerns or the human rights aspects of the conflict. Sefeidin characterized the current situation as a prolonged state of "neither war nor peace," which he predicts could persist for an extended period. Fighting between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah has been ongoing with varying intensity since October 2023. In June, Israel and the Lebanese government signed a US-mediated framework agreement for a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, a proposal rejected by Hezbollah, which has refused direct negotiations.
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