Iraq Suspects Israel Behind Strikes on Air Defense Systems

Baghdad authorities suspect Israel may be responsible for recent airstrikes that destroyed Chinese-made air defense systems recently transferred from Iran to pro-Iranian militias, according to a report in the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. The systems were reportedly intended for use by militias loyal to Tehran.

These suspicions arise amid a series of explosions at militia warehouses across Iraq since early October. Last Saturday, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), also known as Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi, reported an explosion at an ammunition depot in eastern Baghdad, causing a fire and minor injuries. Investigations into the cause are ongoing.

Sources cited in the report suggest the targeted air defense systems were stored in a difficult-to-locate site, which was hit shortly after the shipment arrived. The incidents are being linked to other explosions at warehouses around Baghdad that stored explosive drones and surveillance drones.

Unverified reports indicate that recent shipments from China to Iran included portable air defense systems designed to target low-altitude aircraft. China's Foreign Ministry has previously denied reports of selling missiles and air defense systems to Iran.

While some security officials in Baghdad believe there is a basis for suspecting Israeli involvement, Iraqi officials emphasize a lack of conclusive evidence. It remains unclear whether fighter jets or drones were used in the attacks, though there are reports of Israeli aircraft and refueling planes operating near the Iranian border. The Iraqi Prime Minister and senior commanders are reportedly investigating airspace violations, particularly following the withdrawal of coalition forces late last month.

Beyond the identity of the attackers, Baghdad is increasingly concerned that the explosions are part of preparations for a renewed regional conflict. Some Iraqi intelligence assessments suggest a quiet resumption of US-Israeli actions against Iran, potentially targeting weapon shipments and supply lines to weaken militia capabilities. In response, Iran-aligned groups are reportedly using a lull in US hostilities to regroup and transfer strategic weapons, with some estimating that militias could face extensive damage to their military capabilities if conflict between Washington and Tehran reignites.

In late October, the secretary-general of Kata'ib Hezbollah announced a freeze on military activity, excluding aerial attacks and airspace violations, until a state-run air defense system is established. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed to have documented 171 aerial violations by fighter jets and surveillance aircraft this month. Senior IRGC officials have reportedly ordered militias to enhance their defenses against hostile aircraft. Currently, there is no official confirmation of Israeli involvement or a renewed campaign against Iran in Iraq, but the ongoing explosions, air defense system transfers, and fears of militia capability damage point to rising tensions that could make Iraq another theater in the regional conflict.