Trump Administration Divided on Netanyahu Ahead of Israeli Election

A number of senior advisors to U.S. President Donald Trump believe that a new Israeli government not including far-right partners of Benjamin Netanyahu could offer Washington better opportunities to implement its Middle East agenda, according to Axios. This internal division exists despite Trump's public endorsement of the Israeli Prime Minister for the upcoming election. Sources indicate growing dissatisfaction within Trump's inner circle regarding Netanyahu's handling of key regional issues, including Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon, as well as disagreements over Iran and settler violence in the West Bank.

Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu came after weeks of hesitation, with the President even suggesting that Netanyahu's electoral defeat could impact U.S.-Israel relations. However, several advisors reportedly opposed this decision, arguing that Washington should not interfere in Israeli elections. One advisor described Trump's view of Netanyahu as "the devil you know," highlighting their complex relationship. Some U.S. officials believe Trump's support for Netanyahu serves his political interests regardless of the outcome: a Netanyahu victory would allow Trump to claim credit, while a loss might incentivize a new Israeli leadership to maintain good ties with Washington.

Several senior Trump administration officials have expressed dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's performance over the past six months, particularly concerning Washington's regional priorities. Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly conveyed their displeasure with Netanyahu's reluctance to advance the U.S. peace plan for Gaza. U.S. Envoy Tom Barrack voiced concerns about the Netanyahu government's approach to Syria and ongoing Israeli military operations there. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team maintain better relations with Netanyahu, they believe Israel could do more to support the Lebanese government and have expressed dismay over insufficient action to curb settler attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank.

Some U.S. officials suggest that a new Israeli government without Netanyahu's far-right allies might be more cooperative with Washington. Confidence in Netanyahu's assessments, particularly regarding Iran, has reportedly waned among some senior U.S. officials, including Vice President J.D. Vance. Vance and others reportedly found Netanyahu's pre-war estimates on Iran to be inaccurate, raising questions about his suitability as a partner for Trump's regional goals. Vance, who previously stated he would not interfere in foreign elections after supporting Hungary's Viktor Orbán, has refrained from endorsing Netanyahu, emphasizing the President's stance as paramount.

Following the Israeli and U.S. midterm elections, Trump will face a critical decision regarding a potential large-scale military operation against Iran, a path Netanyahu reportedly favors. However, the Israeli election results could influence Trump's decision or the timing of any military action. Trump, conversely, aims to focus on a broader diplomatic track, including the Gaza peace plan, understandings with Lebanon and Syria, and a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. Progress on these fronts may depend on the composition of Israel's next government.

Recent Israeli polls suggest that Netanyahu's bloc may fall short of a majority in the Knesset, potentially securing around 50 seats out of 120, a significant drop from his current coalition's size. Opposition parties, led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, are projected to win between 52 and 56 seats. Arab parties could gain 14 to 16 seats, and a party representing reservists might win four. However, no bloc appears to have a clear path to the 61 seats needed for a majority. Eisenkot faces challenges in forming a coalition, as he has ruled out involving Arab parties and a minority government supported from the outside is opposed by some potential partners. A national unity government also seems unlikely. If no coalition can be formed, Israel could face new elections, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker Prime Minister. Axios concludes that the election may not necessarily result in a government more aligned with Trump's agenda, potentially leaving the U.S. President with a politically weakened Netanyahu and a prolonged Israeli political crisis.