Netanyahu Accused of Leveraging Hebron Operation for Election Gains

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on October 23 a significant offensive plan in Hebron, unprecedented since 1967, aimed at a "new offensive model" similar to operations in Jenin and Tulkarm. Netanyahu stated the goal was to "evacuate residents, go house to house, remove weapons, and destroy terrorist infrastructure." He linked the operation to "enemy attempts to harm Israel before the elections." Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that the residential neighborhood of the perpetrators would be evacuated and its infrastructure demolished, asserting that "Iran, its proxies, and the Muslim Brotherhood axis are trying to carry out attacks to directly influence election results in Israel."

Field operations are underway in Hebron's "Furs al-Hawa" area, reminiscent of the destruction in Rafah and Khan Younis. In response to the operation, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for a comprehensive military campaign in the West Bank to dismantle the Palestinian Authority. Shortly after, four new agricultural settlements were approved in the southern Hebron hills, alongside the demolition of "illegal" Palestinian structures. Minister of Settlement Affairs Orit Strock advocated for encircling Hebron, demolishing adjacent Palestinian homes, and expanding settlements. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir demanded the complete dismantling of the Palestinian Authority, reasserting absolute control over the West Bank, and imposing Israeli sovereignty.

Opposition figure Avigdor Lieberman criticized Netanyahu's government, calling the Hebron operation a result of "fragility" and advocating for an alternative policy to Netanyahu's "containment" approach. Media outlets not aligned with the religious right described the operation as a government failure, highlighting Israel's international isolation due to actions by Israeli militias allegedly protected by the military and security apparatus against Palestinians. Current government policy is seen as pushing towards a comprehensive clash with Palestinian presence in the West Bank, serving Netanyahu's electoral needs.

Netanyahu and his ministers are reportedly leveraging the Hebron operation for electoral campaign purposes, reinforcing the narrative of "either the right or Palestine." This urgency in statements is seen as a precautionary measure to solidify his narrative and avoid accusations of failure before the elections. Netanyahu also seeks to deflect responsibility from the General Security Service, which is directly under his command and responsible for the West Bank.

The announced plans, including the "Grey Locks" system involving military searches of Palestinian vehicles and the demolition of homes deemed illegal, are part of the current government's policies. The strategy targets Palestinian cities from Hebron to Nablus and Jenin, mirroring the operations in Jenin and Tulkarm. This approach involves blockading cities, raiding neighborhoods, displacing residents, confiscating property, and destroying civilian infrastructure, potentially leading to the full evacuation of Hebron or other cities. Such implementation could result in mass forced displacement, undermining the Palestinian Authority, economy, and society, and would likely lead to direct confrontation with the international community, including the US, potentially resulting in sanctions.

Analysts suggest the upcoming US midterm elections could have severe consequences for Israel. Questions remain about the feasibility of Netanyahu's plan, particularly large-scale population displacement. Many government declarations and decisions, such as the evacuation of Khan al-Ahmar and sanctions against the Palestinian Authority, have not been fully implemented. Concerns are raised by national security institutes and opposition figures like Gadi Eisenkot and Golan about these plans posing a risk to Jordanian and Israeli national security. The West Bank and the Palestinian issue are becoming a focal point of international attention, with potential European sanctions aligning with US trends. Shifts in US party stances towards Israel are also a cause for concern for the Israeli establishment, particularly Netanyahu's government, which relied on Trump's support.

Electorally, Netanyahu's plan is met with indifference in the Israeli public. While this may be convenient for him, it indicates that public sentiment has not shifted in his favor following the Hebron operation. The government faces the possibility of ending its term soon depending on election outcomes. Smotrich and Strock are pushing for accelerated demolition and the establishment of new settlements. In conclusion, unlike past decades where pre-election operations aided Netanyahu's political survival, the deep divisions in Israeli society and unresolved wars have not benefited the Likud and the far-right. The opposition has successfully influenced public opinion by focusing on the right's security and strategic failures. The Netanyahu government is accelerating measures to create a new security and demographic reality in the West Bank, laying the groundwork for a comprehensive targeting of major Palestinian cities. A future political change could alter these plans based on a different national security vision. The resilience of Palestinians and the normalization of displacement ideas are crucial in confronting the government's plan, which combines decisive action with the prevention of a Palestinian state.