Trump's Support for Netanyahu Driven by Familiarity, Not Policy

Despite Donald Trump's public endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, senior figures in Trump's circle reportedly see advantages in Netanyahu's replacement. Behind the scenes, criticism of Netanyahu has intensified, particularly concerning the war with Iran and regional policy. Trump has historically worked closely with Netanyahu, describing their relationship as "He's the devil he knows." Trump's recent declaration of support for Netanyahu, hinting at potential repercussions for US-Israel relations if Netanyahu loses, is seen by some American sources as a strategic move. Trump could potentially benefit regardless of the election outcome: a Netanyahu victory could be framed as a political rescue, providing leverage, while a loss would allow Trump to pivot to cultivating relations with a new Israeli leadership, rendering his prior support for Netanyahu's rivals a minor detail.

Many of Trump's closest advisors reportedly opposed his endorsement of Netanyahu, believing he should avoid interfering in Israeli elections. Senator J.D. Vance and other senior figures within Trump's orbit are said to be disappointed with Netanyahu's performance during the Iran conflict, viewing his pre-war assessments as flawed. This has fueled doubts about Netanyahu's suitability for advancing Trump's regional ambitions. Trump is keen to move beyond the Iran conflict and pursue an ambitious political agenda, including his peace plan for Gaza, mediating agreements between Israel and Lebanon, and Israel and Syria, and ultimately a historic peace deal with Saudi Arabia. The success of these initiatives may depend on the composition of the next Israeli government.

Over the past six months, dissatisfaction with Netanyahu on key regional policy issues has grown among some of Trump's senior advisors. Some American officials believe a new Israeli government, free from far-right coalition partners, might be more amenable to the US administration's agenda. Recent Israeli election polls indicate a weakening of Netanyahu's coalition, with projections suggesting it will fall short of a Knesset majority. Three major television networks' final polls before the election predicted Netanyahu's bloc would win only 50 seats, a significant drop from his current coalition's strength, while the Likud party is expected to decline from 32 to 20 seats. The opposition bloc, led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to win between 52 and 56 seats.

These poll results suggest a potential political stalemate, with neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot having a clear path to forming a 61-seat majority government. Eisenkot would need to rely on Arab parties, which he has ruled out, or form a minority government, facing internal opposition. A unity government between Netanyahu and his rivals is also considered highly unlikely. If no coalition can be formed, Israel could face another election, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister. This scenario might leave Trump dealing with a weakened Netanyahu and an Israeli political system mired in a prolonged crisis, hindering his regional diplomatic goals.