Poll Shows Opposition Leading Netanyahu by 6 Seats Ahead of 2026 Elections
Translated & summarized from Alarab by baba
A final pre-election poll shows Israel's opposition bloc leading Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc by six seats, with 54 seats to 48. Over 80% of Israelis are expected to vote, and 60% favor a unity government. Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett are polling ahead of Netanyahu in hypothetical prime ministerial contests. The poll, released four days before the 2026 elections, also highlights several parties struggling to cross the electoral threshold.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Opposition bloc leads Netanyahu's bloc by 54 to 48 seats in final pre-election poll.
- Over 80% of Israelis are confident they will vote in the upcoming 2026 elections.
- 60% of the Israeli public prefers the formation of a unity government.
- Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett are polling ahead of Netanyahu for prime minister.
- Several parties are struggling to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold.
- Arab parties are projected to win 14 seats, with increased voter confidence.
A final poll before the 2026 Israeli elections, published by the Maariv newspaper, indicates that the "change bloc" of opposition parties would secure 54 seats, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "coalition bloc" would receive 48 seats. The poll also suggests that over 80% of Israelis are confident they will vote, and 60% prefer a unity government. The "change bloc" has gained six seats compared to the previous week's poll, while the "coalition bloc" has lost three seats. The Emek Yisrael party, led by Ofer Vinter, is currently polling at 3%, just below the 3.25% electoral threshold, potentially impacting the final seat distribution.
Within the opposition, Naftali Bennett's Bayahd party saw the most significant rise, gaining two seats to reach 15. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party maintained 21 seats, and Yisrael Beiteinu held 8 seats. The poll also shows the "Economic Reserve Soldiers" party narrowly passing the threshold with four seats, though this is conditional on them clearing the threshold. If they fail, the coalition bloc would gain two seats, bringing their total to 50 against the opposition's 56, plus 14 for Arab parties.
Several parties, including Emek Yisrael, Haredi parties, Noam L'Yisrael, and Tzomet Beit Yisrael, are struggling to cross the electoral threshold. The poll indicates 81% of Israelis are certain to vote, a potential increase from the 71% turnout in the 2022 elections. Voter confidence is slightly higher among opposition supporters (87%) than coalition supporters (83%). Confidence among Arab party supporters has risen to 81%, matching the general average, which could lead to a higher number of seats for Arab parties.
In head-to-head matchups for prime minister, Gadi Eisenkot leads Netanyahu with 49% to 41%. Naftali Bennett also edges out Netanyahu, with 45% support compared to Netanyahu's 43%. Netanyahu maintains a lead over Avigdor Lieberman, though the margin has slightly decreased.
Mentioned
