Two Campaigns Target Ofer Winter: One Legitimate, One Malicious

Two distinct campaigns are underway concerning Ofer Winter and the "Am Echad Yisrael" party. The first, primarily driven by the Likud party, accuses Winter of intending to betray his right-wing commitments, similar to Naftali Bennett's past actions. This campaign alleges Winter will pledge allegiance to the right before elections, only to align with figures like Avigdor Lieberman, Bennett, and Gadi Eisenkot afterward. The second campaign, spearheaded by Bezalel Smotrich and the Religious Zionism party, focuses on the tangible risk of Winter's party failing to pass the electoral threshold, potentially jeopardizing the entire right-wing bloc's control.

The article distinguishes sharply between these two efforts. The Likud campaign is described as venomous and false, relying on slander without evidence and showing ingratitude towards Winter, who dedicated his life to Israel's security, often at personal risk and against the military establishment's prevailing views. In contrast, Smotrich's campaign is deemed entirely legitimate, addressing the plausible scenario of Winter's party not crossing the electoral threshold and highlighting the severe consequences such an event could have, based on past precedents.

Further analysis delves into the Likud's accusations, labeling statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comparing Winter to Bennett and by Minister Karai alleging Winter aims to establish a "Palestine government" as absurd. The article notes Netanyahu's past close relationship with Winter, including efforts to appoint him as military secretary, which required significant personal trust. However, criticism also comes from Justice Minister Yariv Levin, prompting an examination of the Likud's underlying fear: that Winter might emulate Avigdor Lieberman's past political maneuvering. The Likud worries Winter could initially support Netanyahu but later declare a government impossible with him and his bloc, a scenario they believe is mirrored in Winter's current demands regarding the Haredi parties.

Despite these concerns, the article argues that Winter is unlikely to endorse Lieberman and Bennett as prime ministers with centrist-left support, asserting it's contrary to his character. It also dismisses the complaints from "Am Echad Yisrael" as somewhat childish, stating that entering politics requires exposure to criticism. The article points out that critical billboards are within the bounds of political discourse, recalling past instances of harsh criticism against Religious Zionism and Likud politicians without similar outcry. Winter, having endured years of defamation within the army and media for defying the status quo, is presented as resilient to such public campaigns.

Smotrich and Religious Zionism supporters, while expressing no ill will towards Winter personally and acknowledging his contributions, voice legitimate concerns about his party's aggressive forward push and unwillingness to engage in dialogue. Smotrich is quoted stating that if they believed Winter's candidacy would lead to a right-wing victory, they would not oppose him, emphasizing their primary goal is a right-wing win. The article draws parallels to the past electoral failures of Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, who, despite strong showings, fell below the electoral threshold. It highlights the current situation with three right-wing parties (Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Am Echad Yisrael) vying for votes, contrasting it with the past where only one other party besides Likud existed on the right. Smotrich's argument that there isn't room for three such parties is presented as a valid concern, especially given an estimated one to one-and-a-half mandates potentially lost if votes are split.

The article questions Winter's awareness of the risks, citing the example of former Haifa mayor Einat Kalisch-Rotem's defeat despite her conviction. Winter reportedly believes parties approaching him only want him to withdraw, but the article suggests these overtures were for potential collaboration. It discusses phenomena like the "pull" of larger parties in the final election week and the "trembling hand syndrome," where voters, despite rational intentions, vote emotionally, citing a soldier's experience of being unable to vote against the right-wing bloc despite prior intentions. Winter's past refusal of offers, including a top spot in Religious Zionism and significant placements in Likud with the potential for an independent faction, is viewed by critics as poor judgment, while supporters see it as principled adherence to his path. Ultimately, Winter's legacy will be defined by his electoral success or failure in potentially securing a right-wing majority.