Final Israeli Polls Show Tight Race, Coalition Bloc Between 48-62 Seats
Translated & summarized from NEWSru Israel by baba
Five final pre-election polls in Israel released between October 21-23 show varied results for the Knesset elections on October 27. Four polls suggest Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party leads the "Likud," while only Channel 14's poll grants the current coalition a parliamentary majority, projecting 62 seats. The coalition bloc's seat count across all five polls ranges from 48 to 62. "Likud's" seat projections vary widely from 19 to 30, whereas "Yashar's" are more consistent, between 20 and 23 seats. Concerns about election irregularities were expressed by 59% of respondents.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Five final Israeli election polls show the current coalition bloc winning between 48 and 62 seats.
- Four of five polls indicate Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party leads over the "Likud."
- Only Channel 14's poll grants the current coalition a parliamentary majority with 62 seats.
- Polls show significant variance for "Likud" seats, ranging from 19 to 30.
- Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu in preferred Prime Minister matchups in most polls.
- 59% of respondents expressed concerns about potential election irregularities.
Five pre-election opinion polls released in Israel between October 21-23 present significantly varied results ahead of the Knesset elections on October 27. Four of the surveys indicate a lead for Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party over the "Likud," while only one poll, from Channel 14, suggests the current coalition parties could secure a parliamentary majority.
The "Maariv" newspaper's final poll, conducted by Lazar Research Institute, projects "Yashar" with 21 seats and "Likud" with 19. Other parties include "Behad" (15), "Democratim" (10), Yisrael Beiteinu (8), Shas (8), the United Arab List (8), Otzma Yehudit (7), Yahadut HaTorah (7), Religious Zionism and Zehut (7), Ra'am (6), and "Miluimnikim-Kalkalit" (4). Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" party, with 3% of the vote, is projected to fall short of the electoral threshold. This poll estimates the current coalition bloc at 48 seats, opposition Zionist parties at 54, and Arab parties at 14, with an additional four seats for Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha's list outside these blocs. Compared to a previous "Maariv" poll, the coalition bloc lost three seats, while "Likud," Shas, and Religious Zionism gained one each. "Amcha Israel," which previously garnered four seats, is now projected to miss the Knesset.
A "Maariv" poll also found that 81% of respondents are confident they will vote, with higher rates among opposition supporters (87%) and Arab party voters (81%, up from 74% in early October). If no bloc achieves a majority, 60% prefer a national unity government, with 33% favoring one led by the "change bloc" and 19% by Netanyahu. Twenty-three percent favored new elections. In head-to-head matchups for Prime Minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 49% to 41%, Bennett leads 45% to 43%, and Liberman leads 44% to 39%. This poll surveyed 1048 respondents from October 19-22.
The "A-Yom" newspaper's poll, by Kantar, shows "Yashar" with 23 seats and "Likud" with 21. "Behad" receives 14 seats. The current coalition bloc is estimated at 50 seats, and opposition Zionist parties, including Hendel and Zelicha's list, at 56. Arab parties are projected to win 14 seats. Security and war are cited as the main factors influencing voter choice by 26%, followed by cost of living and the economy (23%), and defense of democracy (12%). This survey included 1110 respondents from October 21-22.
"Zman Israel's" poll, by Yossi Tatika and Adgenda, predicts "Yashar" at 23 seats and "Likud" at 21. "Behad" gets 11 seats. The current coalition bloc is projected at 51 seats, with opposition Zionist parties (excluding Hendel and Zelicha's list) also at 51. Including that list, the "change bloc" could reach 55 seats. The poll also indicates that 59.6% believe Netanyahu should leave politics if he fails to form a government, while 28.8% disagree. This survey involved 500 respondents on October 21-22.
In contrast, the Channel 14 poll, conducted by NEXT DATA under Shlomo Filber, is the sole survey giving the current coalition a parliamentary majority, with 62 seats. "Likud" is projected to win 30 seats, while "Yashar" receives 20. "Behad" gets 11 seats. "Amcha Israel" and "Miluimnikim-Kalkalit" are among the parties expected to fall below the electoral threshold. In a preference for Prime Minister, Netanyahu leads with 54% support, followed by Eisenkot at 32%. This poll surveyed 7937 respondents on October 22.
Finally, a Channel 13 poll, conducted by "A-Madad" and other firms, shows "Yashar" with 20 seats and "Likud" with 19. The coalition bloc is estimated at 49 seats, and opposition Zionist parties at 52. Arab parties are projected to win 15 seats. Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in the prime ministerial preference question, 46% to 38%. Additionally, 59% of respondents expressed concerns about potential election irregularities, with 66% of opposition supporters sharing this concern. This survey included 1084 participants.
Overall, the five polls show the current coalition bloc ranging from 48 to 62 seats, and opposition Zionist parties (excluding Hendel and Zelicha's list) from 44 to 54 seats. The results show significant divergence in party support, particularly for "Likud," which ranges from 19 to 30 seats. "Yashar's" support is more stable, between 20 and 23 seats. "Amcha Israel" consistently falls below the electoral threshold in all polls, while Hendel and Zelicha's list surpasses it in four out of five. The article notes that minor shifts in support for parties near the electoral threshold could significantly alter bloc seat allocations, making definitive predictions difficult.
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