Likud Leads in Final Knesset Election Poll Ahead of October 27 Vote

A final poll released by Israel's Channel 14 indicates that the Likud party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is poised to win the upcoming Knesset elections. The survey, conducted by NEXT DATA under sociologist Shlomo Filber, projects that the right-wing bloc will secure 62 out of 120 parliamentary seats, enough to form a governing coalition independently.

Likud is expected to win 30 seats, making it the leading party. The Yashar party, headed by Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to come in second with 20 seats. Naftali Bennett's party is expected to gain 11 seats, while Shas will have nine. Yair Golan's Democrats are predicted to secure eight seats, as are Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism, and the Joint List. The Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance is expected to win seven seats, and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to take six. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is expected to hold five seats.

Several smaller parties, including Reservists-Economy (1.9%), Amcha Israel (1.5%), Noam (0.6%), the Haredi People's Party (0.3%), and Ahi - Return to Roots (0.2%), failed to cross the electoral threshold.

The poll also showed the center-left bloc winning 44 seats and Arab parties collectively securing 14 seats. Even a hypothetical alliance between the opposition and Arab parties would only yield 58 seats, four short of the right-wing bloc's projected total.

In a personal trust rating for prime minister candidates, Netanyahu garnered 54% support against Eisenkot's 32%, Bennett's 10%, and Lieberman's 4%. In a direct head-to-head comparison between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, Netanyahu received 55% of the vote compared to Eisenkot's 45%.

The survey interviewed 7,937 adult citizens from all sectors of society, making it the most extensive public opinion poll before the elections scheduled for Tuesday, October 27.