Israeli Political Shakeup Looms as Coalition May Defy Leadership

Israeli political parties are bracing for potential upheaval in the Knesset, with projections suggesting up to a third of the outgoing coalition could vote against its leadership. Parties aiming for change are preparing for the possibility of a minority government, though key figures Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett reportedly oppose such a move. Meanwhile, a consensus is emerging on a first step post-election: replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, even without a full agreement on forming a new government.

Recent polls indicate the bloc opposing Prime Minister Netanyahu holds an advantage, but the "change bloc" parties lack the numbers for a government based on their current agreements. Netanyahu and his allies also fall short of a majority in most surveys, though some show the right-wing bloc with a lead. The electoral threshold could alter seat distribution, making a small number of votes decisive for forming a new government or triggering further political maneuvering.

Gadi Eisenkot has expressed a desire to achieve a significant outcome enabling a Zionist government independent of external factors. However, forming a government with only 58 or 59 seats requires careful agreement with partners, particularly Bennett and Lieberman, who are against relying on support or abstentions from Arab parties. Eisenkot himself has not ruled out external support from Ra'am, but a concrete plan remains elusive.

Legally, forming a government doesn't require 61 votes in favor, but a majority in a confidence vote. Abstentions could allow a government to take office without an absolute majority. However, a constructive no-confidence vote to oust an incumbent government requires 61 MKs to support an alternative. This means Eisenkot's minority government scenario is relevant for formation but not for removing Netanyahu's government through a simple majority.

Lieberman has proposed an alternative: incorporating Likud members into a government without Netanyahu or forming a Zionist majority through post-election bloc realignments, claiming some Likud members would agree. No direct negotiations are currently underway. Eisenkot aims to form a government with a partial majority and expand it later, while Lieberman refuses to join such a government, demanding a Zionist majority from the outset. A recent meeting between Eisenkot and Lieberman highlighted the need to increase voter turnout but did not resolve their dispute over a minority government.

Internal leadership competition persists, with Eisenkot seeking to emerge as the largest party leader and Bennett positioning himself as a natural candidate based on his premiership experience. Lieberman insists on not making commitments that contradict his stance. Each party leader seeks to increase their leverage, though seat transfers within the same bloc don't necessarily boost the bloc's overall power. Post-election, they must agree on the next prime minister, coalition composition, and formation terms.

A priority after the election is replacing Amir Ohana as Knesset Speaker. The change bloc also seeks to advance a state commission of inquiry into the October 7th events, legislation on conscription, limiting prime ministerial terms, and reversing judicial changes by the outgoing government. Lieberman also wants a law preventing individuals facing criminal indictments from serving as prime minister. Binding agreements on legislative details and their order are still pending, though teams have met to coordinate initial steps in the new Knesset. The goal is to act quickly before coalition negotiations deepen divisions, learning from the previous Bennett-Lapid government's failure to pass promised laws before its collapse.