Israeli Generals Say No Reason to Strike Iran Before US Elections

High-ranking sources within the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that U.S. President Donald Trump did not prevent an Israeli strike on Iran, as such an attack was not on the agenda. According to Ynet on Thursday, October 22, the military said, "There were no plans to attack, but there was an increase in readiness and tension in the system in line with American vigilance." They added that there is no reason to attack Iran before the elections unless Iran is observed preparing an attack on Israel. However, beyond military preparations, there are concerns about the political leadership's rhetoric. The IDF is striving to maintain high vigilance and avoid escalation, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz continue to publicly discuss a potential strike. Netanyahu stated on October 21 that Iran is "again trying to develop death bombs," and Katz said the next day that "Bennett, Lapid, or Golan will be responsible for any terrorist act or attack." The military does not welcome such statements, as they will have to deal with the consequences. The military believes that statements about a potential strike could prompt Iran to increase its own readiness and prepare for retaliation, potentially creating a dangerous cycle of action and reaction. An error in assessing the adversary's intentions could lead to an unintended escalation.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force continues its preparations, including a recent exercise involving dozens of fighter jets practicing a strike scenario on Iran, flying near the Iranian border. These flights are part of operational readiness, aimed at maintaining combat capability, identifying enemy weaknesses, and refining strike routes. While these exercises demonstrate readiness, they do not signify a decision to strike before the elections. Currently, Trump appears uninterested in an attack on Iran before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. He recently posted that Iran is "making up fake hits" to drive up oil prices. On the night of October 22, Iranian state television reported that seven oil tankers were damaged or sank due to attacks or sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which, if true, would be the largest number of vessels affected there in a single day since February 28. The report, citing the IRGC Navy, stated four tankers were attacked and three sank from mines, with Iran threatening to attack U.S. bases if Washington attempts to secure tanker passage through other routes. Shipping intelligence firm Lloyd's List Intelligence noted that some tanker operators are navigating the Strait at night via a route near Oman, protected by the U.S. military, disabling tracking systems before transferring oil to other tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Iranian state media also showed footage of what it called a "production line of kamikaze drones," featuring Iranian Army Commander Amir Hatami and a new drone model.

Earlier reports from the Financial Times suggested Netanyahu had ordered a strike on October 10, which Trump allegedly halted due to objections about resuming hostilities before the U.S. midterms. Netanyahu has denied this. The Times also reported that U.S. and Israeli militaries have planned a "short and intense" operation against Iran for after the elections, potentially a three-day attack to inflict economic damage and force negotiations. Iranian officials have stated they are aware of these plans and are developing their own countermeasures, threatening to target data centers and internet cables, and warning that a new conflict round "will not be short."